Cancelled my flight this morning due to personal minimums (aka risk mitigation)

k9medic

k9medic

Line Up and Wait
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Sep 27, 2018
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N Central FL and GTC Bahamas when off work
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ATP-H, CMEL, CSEL, CFI/CFII Airplanes and Helicopters
Went out to the airport this morning for a flight down to Miami.

At the airport I was met with 1/2sm and fog in the local area and clear just to the south of the airport. After preflighting, I sat around for a bit waiting for it to improve. TAF was showing that by 0900 it would be 1500' SCT so I was hopeful as I needed to depart by 0930 to make my meeting.

I'm not too big on flying IFR in a single unless I have no other choice, particularly when weather is below the approach minimums to get back into my departure airport.

Well 0930 came and went and I cancelled my trip. Visibility had improved to 1 1/2sm and 300' BKN and trending better. Still clear to the south of me but there were some risks that I just could not mitigate.

Some things I had to process:
  • We put a new cylinder on back in March. Flew a bit of time on it then but nothing since. It would be terrible if I had an engine issue on takeoff.
  • There is a GPS approach coming back in but it only gets me down to 480' so coming back was not an option.
  • Next closest airport is about 15 miles away and it was reporting clear. That's a long way to fly if I had an issue.
At the end of the morning, it was the most conservative approach that won out. When you push the weather and get into trouble, remember who put you there.
 
So I've found that I really don't like flying IFR. When I passed my checkride back in December I thought it'd be a really useful rating. I still think that it's good to have and that it could be useful, but every time I've had a chance to actually use the cert, I've scrubbed. I just don't like the idea of being in soup in a single. I'm not multi rated, so if I ever get a multi rating I'll probably find a new reason not to fly IFR :rofl:.
 
I'd do 300' broken all day long in a multi engine be it helicopter or airplane. Have done 1/2 sm 200' in a helicopter and once 0/0 in a C310 (when I was younger)

Flew "VFR" with 300' ceilings in a helicopter once too.
 
k9medic said:
I'd do 300' broken all day long in a multi engine be it helicopter or airplane. Have done 1/2 sm 200' in a helicopter and once 0/0 in a C310 (when I was younger)

Flew "VFR" with 300' ceilings in a helicopter once too.
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I was going to say those exact things, but didn't want to get too far off topic. I never had much fear of ceiling and visibility in a multiengine helicopter. Convective nastiness is another story!
 
Helicopter is a different beast. If you know the area, and most importantly, the obstacles, you can low level through flat land with ease. Plunk it down somewhere if you have to. I remember flying trail in a flight of four national guard Hueys which landed in the median of an interstate. After a while we re-grouped and hovered over to a farmer's field to shut down and wait for better ceiling.

Hills and hollers a different story. That's a good way to die.
 
Don't feel bad about it for one second. I'm even a CFII, but even I don't care to do low IFR flying because I don't do it often enough to feel proficient. In a single engine airplane, I usually prefer at least 500 feet or higher for ceilings. That way if the engine does quit, I have at least enough time after breaking out to dodge a few trees (the Midwest is flat enough and open enough there will more than likely be a field in front of you).
 
IK04 said:
300 foot Broken was all I needed to hear.
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Heck, I flew a Skyhawk 180 nm with 300 ft overcast. I had an outstanding pilot next to me, and it was over the flatlands, or I wouldn't have tried it. The destination was below minimums so I also got my first diversion to alternate.
And unless I have a spare engine, or one without pistons, I'll never do that again.
 
midwestpa24 said:
Don't feel bad about it for one second. I'm even a CFII, but even I don't care to do low IFR flying because I don't do it often enough to feel proficient.
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And that right there is the key. Current looks great in the log book but proficiency is what saves our bacon.
 
Piperonca said:
Helicopter is a different beast. If you know the area, and most importantly, the obstacles, you can low level through flat land with ease. Plunk it down somewhere if you have to. I remember flying trail in a flight of four national guard Hueys which landed in the median of an interstate. After a while we re-grouped and hovered over to a farmer's field to shut down and wait for better ceiling.

Hills and hollers a different story. That's a good way to die.
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Yeah, and then there's Kobe Bryant........
 
It’s all about personal limits, 99.99% of the time you would have broken through that fog layer and been VFR at 1k feet. But there is that slight chance getting back into the field in an emergency wouldn’t have worked. Other pilots, no thought about it and go. Other pilots would have stayed put.
 
Yep, I’m an ATP, CFI/CFII in airplanes and helicopters.

Proficient and current in both types of air frames. Last .297 ride was in an EC135.

A man’s gotta know his limitations though. I wasn’t flying for work so no need to work hard to do it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Zero visibility in a Cessna 310 ? Did I read that correctly? For landing..??
 
If the approaches allow it, I'm good. But fog? Yeah, not so much. Good that you have limits and stick with them.

I've shot an ILS with the weather reported at 100'. It was automated weather (AWOS/ASOS) and sometimes they are a bit off. I figured if it was right I'd just go missed and could fly to something nearby with better weather and wait it out. Also thought I might make a few laps and get some more low approaches with having to go missed. We broke out right under 300' with a 200' minimum, so I landed. We could see for many miles under the ceiling.
 
wayne said:
If the approaches allow it, I'm good. But fog? Yeah, not so much. Good that you have limits and stick with them.

I've shot an ILS with the weather reported at 100'. It was automated weather (AWOS/ASOS) and sometimes they are a bit off. I figured if it was right I'd just go missed and could fly to something nearby with better weather and wait it out. Also thought I might make a few laps and get some more low approaches with having to go missed. We broke out right under 300' with a 200' minimum, so I landed. We could see for many miles under the ceiling.
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Nothing wrong with a 100’ ceiling, as ceilings are not landing minimums. It’s not that unusual to land with “0” ceiling, as long as you have required vis.
 
Good call. I fly IFR in a piston single to punch through low layers all the time. But I don't go if it's below 700ft. I'm in claims and seen my share of smoking craters due to bad aeronautical decisions, along with the legal fallout. So it's tainted my risk appetite quite a bit.
 
Kritchlow said:
Zero visibility in a Cessna 310 ? Did I read that correctly? For landing..??
Click to expand...

No, on departure I was young and it was my first flying job. Part 91. Remembered losing sight of the runway lights. Held on an NBD following departure before clearance.

Never again.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Should’ve gone. Missed out on a great IFR flying opportunity.
 
WDD said:
Yeah, and then there's Kobe Bryant........
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Like I said, hills and hollers. And a bad case of get-there-itis. Oh, I forgot lack of instrument proficiency.
 
k9medic said:
Went out to the airport this morning for a flight down to Miami.

At the airport I was met with 1/2sm and fog in the local area and clear just to the south of the airport. After preflighting, I sat around for a bit waiting for it to improve. TAF was showing that by 0900 it would be 1500' SCT so I was hopeful as I needed to depart by 0930 to make my meeting.

I'm not too big on flying IFR in a single unless I have no other choice, particularly when weather is below the approach minimums to get back into my departure airport.

Well 0930 came and went and I cancelled my trip. Visibility had improved to 1 1/2sm and 300' BKN and trending better. Still clear to the south of me but there were some risks that I just could not mitigate.

Some things I had to process:
  • We put a new cylinder on back in March. Flew a bit of time on it then but nothing since. It would be terrible if I had an engine issue on takeoff.
  • There is a GPS approach coming back in but it only gets me down to 480' so coming back was not an option.
  • Next closest airport is about 15 miles away and it was reporting clear. That's a long way to fly if I had an issue.
At the end of the morning, it was the most conservative approach that won out. When you push the weather and get into trouble, remember who put you there.
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You are a very wise man Sir!
 
I like to think about if something happens on climb out and I need to get back. Can I shoot the approach safely. If weather at Blastoff is below approach min then you got to really be confident in that equipment.
 
benyflyguy said:
I like to think about if something happens on climb out and I need to get back. Can I shoot the approach safely. If weather at Blastoff is below approach min then you got to really be confident in that equipment.
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I mean, I get this, but if you weren’t confident in your equipment, why would you go flying at all?

I probably would have gone, if only because it is so hard for us to find non-icing IMC to play in...
 
WDD said:
Yeah, and then there's Kobe Bryant........
Click to expand...

That pilot broke all kinds of links in his chain long before he ever flew a perfectly good helicopter into the ground.

There's plenty of guys who've been flying helicopters in conditions far worse than his, and have been doing so perfectly safely for years. You won't live long if you fly stupid in bad weather.
 
TommyG said:
It’s all about personal limits, 99.99% of the time you would have broken through that fog layer and been VFR at 1k feet. But there is that slight chance getting back into the field in an emergency wouldn’t have worked. Other pilots, no thought about it and go. Other pilots would have stayed put.
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Closest VFR airport 15 miles away. That is likely less distance than the approach would have taken if it was 2000/3 at the departure airport.
Certainly not second guessing the OP’s decision, but just throwing out another option.
 
SToL said:
That pilot broke all kinds of links in his chain long before he ever flew a perfectly good helicopter into the ground.
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I thought it was the other way around? If you break any of the links, the accident doesn't happen.
 
Kritchlow said:
Closest VFR airport 15 miles away. That is likely less distance than the approach would have taken if it was 2000/3 at the departure airport.
Certainly not second guessing the OP’s decision, but just throwing out another option.
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Yep, it was certainly another option. Just not one I wanted to execute having just put a new cylinder on the engine (with an hour of flight time on it.)

The point of my post was for the baby aviators out there. We never know when our last flight will be. Medicals, mechanical issues and all other things might stop us from flying. In this case, nobody is shooting at me and I'm not going to get somebody who is being shot at. That leaves me a lot of room for discretion.
 
I think you made the right call. You need to feel comfortable, but not in the sense of complete "at ease" just comfortable in that you believe the relative risk is worth the trip. Let's face it, we are all taking some sort of risk every time we go up in a SEL airplane, and even just making the trip to the airport.

I am very risk adverse to convective activity - maybe because when I was younger I had the experience of dipping into something that I should not have gone into. I have a real issue with flying anywhere close to "red" cells and I don't try to pick my way through between two of them if unless they are well over 50 miles distant and with plenty of ATC help.

Low ceilings - not so much of a concern. But....some pilots have a real issue taking off and immediately entering a solid overcast layer - even before they can make their initial call to Departure. Now, I will not take off below arrival procedure minimums at a given airport - you may need to come back. And always have an arrival procedure loaded (but not activated) in your GPS. That will save alot of time if you need to divert back immediately after take off.

I also don't like to fly nighttime IFR - just not enough time to find a place to set down when you already have a low ceiling.

You did good and do not question yourself. Just read the NTSB reports about pilots that had ZERO concerns about weather and ceilings and you will soon determine that you have a great chance to survive to be an old pilot.

I think I am more cautious at 57 than I was at 17 when I started my training.
 
k9medic said:
Went out to the airport this morning for a flight down to Miami.

At the airport I was met with 1/2sm and fog in the local area and clear just to the south of the airport. After preflighting, I sat around for a bit waiting for it to improve. TAF was showing that by 0900 it would be 1500' SCT so I was hopeful as I needed to depart by 0930 to make my meeting.

I'm not too big on flying IFR in a single unless I have no other choice, particularly when weather is below the approach minimums to get back into my departure airport.

Well 0930 came and went and I cancelled my trip. Visibility had improved to 1 1/2sm and 300' BKN and trending better. Still clear to the south of me but there were some risks that I just could not mitigate.

Some things I had to process:
  • We put a new cylinder on back in March. Flew a bit of time on it then but nothing since. It would be terrible if I had an engine issue on takeoff.
  • There is a GPS approach coming back in but it only gets me down to 480' so coming back was not an option.
  • Next closest airport is about 15 miles away and it was reporting clear. That's a long way to fly if I had an issue.
At the end of the morning, it was the most conservative approach that won out. When you push the weather and get into trouble, remember who put you there.
Click to expand...

"When in doubt, don't." Words to live by.

Bob Gardner
 
Good call ,not uncommon for the TAFs to be wrong in Florida.
 
Agree with the call, and not trying to second guess. Having said that, getting a non-convective layer in FL is a rare event. Not sure where you are based, but I was kicking myself for not cancelling a prior commitment that morning as there was a nice layer, with higher ceilings than you had. I could have easily done 4 or 5 approaches in actual before it all cleared out later in the day. It's amazing to me how my perspective changed on weather. I'm now looking for high IFR/MVFR days to keep proficient. The whole COVID thing complicates it even more as there are no SouthEast POA meet-ups to guarantee IFR.
 
Sounds like good judgment. I don't like flying out in conditions I can't get back in with in case of an emergent situation. And any set of conditions labeled "fog" would really get my attention. Sometimes just waiting for a little bit better conditions is a good call. When flying little flibs for or pleasure or travel, it's not worthwhile to engage in a stressful flight to the outer margins of safety. When you don't fly for a living, it kinda supposed to be fun.
 
I’ve been flying now 20 years, and it’s surprising how badly I suck at it. But I have never regretted scrubbing a flight ever.
 
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