Having just bought my first airplane, which has a Tanis system, this is a timely thread.
Accepting that after you fly, there will be some water in the oil, and the air in the crankcase will be quite humid due to blow by. We don't know how humid, but it's probably enough that if the ambient temperature is below 50? 40? There will be some condensation. Thankfully at this point everything is still nice and oily. Now we are at 100% relative humidity. Further temperature drop results in more condensation, temperature increase will reduce the RH, but not the dewpoint.
The oil will eventually drip off the cam & other parts (but let's be honest, the cam is the one that we worry most about), leaving them unprotected. If the temperature stays steady, there shouldn't be any additional condensation. If it falls there will be. If we increase the temp., we cut the RH, but not the absolute humidity, nor the DP, so if the temp falls again the rh goes back up. The concern of many is that by heating the oil, we will drive some portion of the water in solution with the oil into the vapor phase, raising humidity. By warming the air in the engine, we reduce the RH (a 5deg. Temp. Increase cuts RH in half), making "room" for more water vapor. If the engine subsequently cools, BAM more condensation. It's these temperature swings that are the killer.
Anecdotal data time. My club has a warrior and a Dakota that were purchased new in the late 70's. Both these airplanes have had several engines, always with tanis heaters, always plugged in when the temp hits 50 or so and not unplugged unless flying or in the spring. Never has an engine failed to reach TBO+10%, which is when they are replaced as a liability concern. Now, the warrior has 14000hrs, and the dakota 10000, so they fly a lot, which probably has more to do with it than the heaters. It always amazes me though on a below freezing day how much warm air is rising out of the oil door when i go to unplug the heater. The club does not remove the dipstick, which i think is suboptimal, but it doesn't seem to have caused problems.
My plan is to run the heater all the time, but leave the dipstick out. My hope is that the warm, moist air in the cranckase will rise out the dipstick tube, and be replaced by low humidity ambient air through the crankcase vent. I suspect that after a few hours, the RH inside the crankcase will be too low to create condensation at any temperature. Even if the outside air were humid, raising its temperature 50deg will put the RH in the teens, and the metal parts of the engine will be well above the DP anyway.