Best Laid plans oft go astray (wx planning)

4RNB

Line Up and Wait
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4RNB
Background. I've got maybe 20-25 hours in a new to me Vans RV10. Cylinders had some corrosion, waiting on first oil analysis. Good power, good compressions. Plane needs some work, specific to this is upgraded and properly working lights. Right position light only works when landing lights are on, this causes intolerable static in the headsets. I am doing well with AP and GPS but have yet to practice instrument approaches. Built in ADSB is showing me traffic but not TAF/Metar/wx, flying with a Sentry and iPad Foreflight wx. My plan has been to fly VFR a lot before a first "annual" in November where everything will be fixed, at which point I'll be willing to fly IFR, expect that by then I will have a 2nd oil analysis back from Blackstone which shows improving numbers, along with maybe 50 hours on the engine giving confidence. I've owned the plane just over a month.

Last night there was a family gathering about 2.5 hours flight away. Initial plans to fly up Saturday were quashed by the weather, low ceilings, T storms. Yesterday looked better, VFR here and there, each with 12K ceilings. I checked cloud layers, it looked like I would have to fly VFR over the top above some 3k layers for the last part of my journey, breaking out 20-50 miles from destination. Nothing showed from 5K to 10K, so I felt confident flying 8500.

About an hour or an hour and a half into the flight we encountered decreasing visibility and some clouds at our altitude. On flight following I flew east for a bit, things looked a bit better, turned north again but encountered more clouds, or at least the appearance of more clouds. Did a 360 turn going down the 6500 as I looked at ADSB radar on the iPad. The clouds I was seeing were not showing up on ADSB and I could not make a determination on the iPad of what all played ahead of my planned flight path. I think I could see the mountain tops, knew they might have been 4000-4500, but I could not see the ground or a well defined top layer. I also could not see any blue sky beyond. I recall checking ADSB radar and clouds while in flight. I was not expecting these clouds, knew not what lay ahead, and was not willing to push things much in a newer plane so I stayed VFR and did a 180 for home. I had checked some along the flight path settings for ceilings and they seemed lower than expected.

What I saw back home maybe an hour after we landed was little in regards to additional info.
Enhanced satellite showed lots of grey with things clear at destination.
I don't recall the cloud settings showing much more info until later in the day as more visible moisture showed up.
Airport ceilings seemed to wedge lower along the flight path.

I think I made the right decision coming home but don't want to let fear rule the day when reasoning, rationale, and good data can keep me flying. We did this 180 before when I could have made it (trying to out climb some very distant mountains before I knew the profile view on FF existed, man I was way above those mountains. I was not willing to stack risks going IFR in a newer to me plane.

When I was getting trained in this plane, my CFI approached things with a "go up and kiss them" approach which was fascinating as I learned my visual assessment of heights was often way off. Some that I thought of as at my altitude were often much lower. I did kiss some 8500 ft clouds and saw more down to 7000.

So, I am looking for feedback as to how to address these things in the future, in the interest of my learning and not being held back. How do you address these things in flight, how do you trust your senses/assessment of things versus going to kiss the clouds and actually seeing. Would Sirius XM wx give me additional data to better know cloud layers?

Thanks.
 
Would Sirius XM wx give me additional data to better know cloud layers?
I've had XM for the last 15 years. The only data I get from it regarding cloud layers is the METARs for fields. I can infer a little from the radar but get no direct cloud layer data. Perhaps more is there that I am not aware of. On the ground I will look at PIREPS for cloud layer data prior to departure.
 
I still call up FSS in those situations and they oftentimes can help. Two scenarios:

1. I was still on the ground thinking no way I can go as ceilings seemed very low. Upon calling, they confirmed ceilings low at departure but advised that I can fly about 10 miles opposite direction where there will be a huge hole I can climb through to get above the layer, remain above until about 50 miles from my destination at which point it’ll be clear. Worked out exactly as the briefer said.

2. On another flight, I was already in flight, maybe about half an hour from my destination when i encountered lower than expected clouds, some precipitation and since it was cold, i was worried about icing. I obviously flew away from it but didn’t know how far I’ll have to divert and if i may have to land elsewhere. Called up FSS in the air, they told me how far to divert which ended up being only about a 15 minute diversion. Since i carry an extra hour of fuel, no problem and i made it to the planned destination.
 
Find a forward horizon reference for your normal seated flying position to help you determine cloud clearance. For the RV-10 I fly occasionally, it is 1.5 fists resting on the glareshield.
 
Good decision. Weather worse than predicted can snowball on you. A plane new to you with known electrical; problems is not the platform to do IFR in with a destination and passenger.

Sort the issues out at annual, do some IFR practice with a high ceiling at the home airport until comfortable with all the navigation and autopilot devices before you file for an IFR trip.

I once made a similar decision, returned to the airport, put the baggage back in the car, and drove 800 miles to our destination. 2 motel nights on the drive, 7 days instead of 9 there. Enjoyed the trip, and the next year, all fell in place, and we flew. Weather trended iffy, we returned 2 days early, another great trip, 7 days instead of 9.

It has often been true that good mechanics are poor electricians, so a well built RV with minor electrical problems is a relatively good deal.
 

Find a forward horizon reference for your normal seated flying position to help you determine cloud clearance. For the RV-10 I fly occasionally, it is 1.5 fists resting on the glareshield.

OK, how many fingers away for the layers above and below? I can't picture how this would work for me, would love to know more.
 
Background. I've got maybe 20-25 hours in a new to me Vans RV10. Cylinders had some corrosion, waiting on first oil analysis. Good power, good compressions. Plane needs some work, specific to this is upgraded and properly working lights. Right position light only works when landing lights are on, this causes intolerable static in the headsets. I am doing well with AP and GPS but have yet to practice instrument approaches. Built in ADSB is showing me traffic but not TAF/Metar/wx, flying with a Sentry and iPad Foreflight wx. My plan has been to fly VFR a lot before a first "annual" in November where everything will be fixed, at which point I'll be willing to fly IFR, expect that by then I will have a 2nd oil analysis back from Blackstone which shows improving numbers, along with maybe 50 hours on the engine giving confidence. I've owned the plane just over a month.

Last night there was a family gathering about 2.5 hours flight away. Initial plans to fly up Saturday were quashed by the weather, low ceilings, T storms. Yesterday looked better, VFR here and there, each with 12K ceilings. I checked cloud layers, it looked like I would have to fly VFR over the top above some 3k layers for the last part of my journey, breaking out 20-50 miles from destination. Nothing showed from 5K to 10K, so I felt confident flying 8500.

About an hour or an hour and a half into the flight we encountered decreasing visibility and some clouds at our altitude. On flight following I flew east for a bit, things looked a bit better, turned north again but encountered more clouds, or at least the appearance of more clouds. Did a 360 turn going down the 6500 as I looked at ADSB radar on the iPad. The clouds I was seeing were not showing up on ADSB and I could not make a determination on the iPad of what all played ahead of my planned flight path. I think I could see the mountain tops, knew they might have been 4000-4500, but I could not see the ground or a well defined top layer. I also could not see any blue sky beyond. I recall checking ADSB radar and clouds while in flight. I was not expecting these clouds, knew not what lay ahead, and was not willing to push things much in a newer plane so I stayed VFR and did a 180 for home. I had checked some along the flight path settings for ceilings and they seemed lower than expected.

What I saw back home maybe an hour after we landed was little in regards to additional info.
Enhanced satellite showed lots of grey with things clear at destination.
I don't recall the cloud settings showing much more info until later in the day as more visible moisture showed up.
Airport ceilings seemed to wedge lower along the flight path.

I think I made the right decision coming home but don't want to let fear rule the day when reasoning, rationale, and good data can keep me flying. We did this 180 before when I could have made it (trying to out climb some very distant mountains before I knew the profile view on FF existed, man I was way above those mountains. I was not willing to stack risks going IFR in a newer to me plane.

When I was getting trained in this plane, my CFI approached things with a "go up and kiss them" approach which was fascinating as I learned my visual assessment of heights was often way off. Some that I thought of as at my altitude were often much lower. I did kiss some 8500 ft clouds and saw more down to 7000.

So, I am looking for feedback as to how to address these things in the future, in the interest of my learning and not being held back. How do you address these things in flight, how do you trust your senses/assessment of things versus going to kiss the clouds and actually seeing. Would Sirius XM wx give me additional data to better know cloud layers?

Thanks.
When you have much Orographic lift, figuring out where the bases and tops are preflight may be impossible without specific knowledge of the weather patterns in the area.
 
I use foreflight and use the visibility and ceiling functions on the map. Gives you a bigger picture ,and may help you decide whether to continue or go around some clouds.
 
OK, how many fingers away for the layers above and below? I can't picture how this would work for me, would love to know more.
Yeah, if you are driving into layers, all bets are off (ie. get your instrument rating so you can call for a pop up when things go not as expected). But if you are driving into an undercast or overcast and want to figure out if you have a chance to clear it and remain VFR, that is when the horizon line gouge comes into play.
 
Playing layers VMC is dicey stuff… either you can see the ground or not. Either you can see the horizon or not.

That is all you need.

NEXRAD radar and METARS via ADSB is a little icing on the cake.

Sounds like you did good. Insofar as the previous “missed opportunity”, it really wasn’t. You weren’t comfortable, THAT ITSELF means (definitively) you shouldn’t go. Bravo!
 
I’m in the same situation, forecast for today shows a gap, but tomorrow’s forecast shows less moisture higher should allow flying over it without worrying about being sandwiched.
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last july.
Rv7 from far northern Idaho to Northern Ca takes a direct path,
no turns, over Spokane, Burns Or, Lakeview Or. and Alturas Ca.
Extremely rural country with few airstrips.
All high desert country.

Oregon had 100 fires going!
Briefer said smoke would not be a factor
and head winds would be light.
Smoke was solid 10k' to 12,000' the entire length of eastern Ore.
Headwinds were 20 kts plus.
My radio died.

I have a firm rule of having an hour reserve which took me to
Klamath Falls Ore with very little gas left plus I could barely
find the airport. But I did. I was getting worried.

I made it, followed an F15 in, disregarded a red light and landed.
Later i chatted with the angry tower guy and he eventually agreed
that I did the right thing and all was forgiven.
He was afraid Id hit the F15!
I made the first taxi way.
The F15 made the last taxi way some 10,000 ft away. mmmm

Radio- loose connection.

moral- smoke is no joke- out west anyways.
take all briefings with a lot of salt.
 
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