Aviation Down -- Airventure Up...?

[Jay Honeck]

Having just returned from our 27th Airventure, I can attest to the fact that it was well-attended. The numbers just released by EAA support that observation -- attendance rose 12% from 2008.

As importantly, it was conducted with very few "stupid pilot tricks" observed. To my knowledge there were few incidents, no accidents, and no fatalities, for which we are all grateful.

I am having trouble reconciling all of this with what we're observing and reading about with regard to GA. GA flying is down in double-digits, GA manufacturers are facing their worst year, ever, and I can attest to the fact that NO ONE is flying on most days in our neck of the woods. Our fly-in business at the hotel is at historic lows. (Well, especially now, with our airport closed for runway reconstruction... . But even before that our fly-in numbers were way down.)

Yet, despite all this, attendance at OSH was UP, and safer than ever. How is this possible?

Here are some other aspects of this question to ponder:

1. How is it possible that pilots who are flying fewer hours than ever were able to safely transition through the FISK approach, into the busiest airspace in the world, without incident? This, as opposed to prior years, when there were more hours flown yet more (and more serious) incidents?

2. How is it possible that every economic indicator shows GA (and the overall economy) in the dumpster, yet attendance at OSH rose 12% from last year?

This is an interesting -- and encouraging -- phenomenon. Long-time industry observers (like Flying Mag's J. Mac MacClellan) are as puzzled by this as I am.

Wot say the group?

 

[tonycondon]

luck?

 

[steingar]

A staycation for many with campers and tents. The campgrounds go on forever, and are not the only ones nearby. For pilots with aircraft it is a relatively inexpensive holiday. We spent less tan we would for a couple nights in a reasonable hotel.

 

[schmookeeg]

I was really shocked at the number of YOUNG people there this year, way more than last, or so I felt.

As a young people myself, this was very encouraging and long overdue.

We took 2x as many on the Los Angeles - Osh run as last year, and I helped fill a third plane with those who didn't make it in time for our Bonanza caravan. It's encouraging.

 

[SkyHog]

I hope its not a "Well, this will be the last time we can afford to go to OSH, we better make it now" thing.

Most likely, its because the economy is not really in the crapper as people thing.

 

[t0r0nad0]

I have a few WAG's:

1) People spent the money to go because OSH was important enough to them that they saved and budgeted for it.

2) What Nick said... maybe the economy isn't as bad as the media would lead us to believe.

3) WRT fewer incidents by pilots with fewer hours flown, I think maybe because they've flown fewer hours they were more cautious and made more of an effort to do things by the book. If pilots fly more hours, they might tend to get complacent and miss important things.

I have no first-hand knowledge or sources to quote, these are just my guesses.

 

[gprellwitz]

My guesses are kind of in line with PJ's. I think that a lot of people were planning on OSH being their one big flight this year. Thus they saved for it and planned for it. Not that they shouldn't do that planning every year, but...

It will be interesting to see what the vendors say about spending at OSH as compared with past years. Were plane sales up or down? How about sales at airparks? Smaller purchases like headsets & GPSes?

 

[Cap'n Jack]

Were the fly-in up as well (compared to drive-in)? In other words, what part of the increase was actually attributed to people flying in? Is it possible people shared rides?

I go with like the "Vacation at home" hyphothesis...

As for the other questions, not enough data to make a guess.

 

[ScottM]

Why would you think there is a causal relationship between Airventure and GA hours flown to begin with?

Just because there may be an economic reason that pilots are not flying as much does not necessarily mean that the public's love of airplanes has decreased.

 

[Missa]

I'm wondering if not as many flew? I never heard of the N40 or Aircraft parking closing and the night we were at Jays the N40 looked empty.

OTOH, Sholler was so full they had to cut a new feild to accomidate all the people. I think that more people attended by gound pounding then in years past and it was a cheeper vacation that way then going somewhere else.

+ if you are driving there you can take the extended family as weight is not as much of a consideration.

Missa

 

[Missa]

Why would you think there is a causal relationship between Airventure and GA hours flown to begin with?

Just because there may be an economic reason that pilots are not flying as much does not necessarily mean that the public's love of airplanes has decreased.

I think the relationship he is refering to is that overall flying hours were down, correlating to a less proficent pilot population in general, yet the Osh saftey record was better then in years past.

 

[ScottM]

I think the relationship he is refering to is that overall flying hours were down, correlating to a less proficent pilot population in general, yet the Osh saftey record was better then in years past.

Even so what is the causal link? Just because something happens does not mean it is related to something else.

If there is a claim that that the pilot population is less proficient is there any coresponding data to support that safety is being compromosied i.e. increase in accidents/hrs flown? I don't know, I have not parsed any data to look at this.

I think that a single data point of OSH being a little safer this year and a claimed decrease in pilot proficency having anything to do with each other is premature. It is not a conclusion that I would jump at.

 

[steingar]

Accident numbers at Oshkosh are so low anyway as to be non-indicative of any kind of trend. The population could be barely proficient and have zero accidents, the population could be highly proficient and have two.

 

[Jay Honeck]

I was really shocked at the number of YOUNG people there this year, way more than last, or so I felt.

I agree. There were MANY more young people at OSH this year than ever before.

For once, at age 50, I wasn't the "young guy" at the airport. This is a very good thing, indeed, for GA.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

Jay- did more people fly to your party? It's only one indicator of the increased attendance being from fly-in vs. drive-in....

 

[Jay Honeck]

I'm wondering if not as many flew? I never heard of the N40 or Aircraft parking closing and the night we were at Jays the N40 looked empty.

The North 40 usually receives two "waves" of arrivals during the week. The first (and biggest) wave arrives Sunday-Monday. This year, that first wave was normal-to-heavy, and resulted in the field being closed to new arrivals on Tuesday. (IOW, the N40 was 100% full.)

The "second wave" usually arrives Wednesday-Thursday, filling in spots vacated by those who don't spend the whole week. This "second wave" was almost entirely missing this year.

I have two guesses as to why this wave didn't occur. There was a ginormous front draped from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico 300 miles East of OSH this year. Perhaps this prevented a big "second wave" of arrivals from the East and Southeast?

Or, perhaps, that was an indication of a bad economy? (IOW, the "first wave" of arrivals were the die-hards who won't miss OSH for anything -- like me -- while the "second wave" were the folks hard-hit by a bad economy who stayed home?)

Dunno. Whatever the cause(s), the jump in attendance is very, very encouraging.

 

[TMetzinger]

North 40 did in fact turn away airplanes early in the week. The interview with Poberezny I caught had the number of airplanes up slightly this year compared to last year.

 

[Jay Honeck]

Jay- did more people fly to your party? It's only one indicator of the increased attendance being from fly-in vs. drive-in....

Which one?

The Fly-In Pool Party at the hotel was a great success, with the hotel 100% full, some tents pitched on the lawn, and almost all the fud and beer gone. It did seem like the transient guests (those who stop in for a burger and a pop on their way through to OSH) was down, while the overnight and local drive-in pilot crowd was up. (I'll have pix by Friday, hopefully...)

IMHO this was probably due to our airport being down to a single runway (due to runway reconstruction) and a fairly crisp cross-wind that day. If *I* were on my way to OSH, and knew that there was free fud down there, but I would have to wrestle with a nasty x-wind landing to get it, I would probably pass on that free burger.

It also didn't help that -- for the first time in 7 years -- our FBO did not offer any sort of an Oshkosh fuel discount. They are hurting so badly that they apparently felt they couldn't afford to offer one. (And now, of course, they are 100% shut down for the entire month of August, while the runway intersection is being re-done. And, no, our airport commission did not vote them any rent mitigation -- they still must pay for the full month, even though they are unable to do business. Welcome to Iowa City!)

As for the N40 party on Wednesday night, that party drew about the same number as always -- 40 to 50 people. That one is a lot harder to attend/conduct, since we're literally in a SEL plane in the middle of a giant field -- but it always seems to come together, thanks to the dedication of a few volunteers with cars!

 

[CJones]

I have two guesses as to why this wave didn't occur. There was a ginormous front draped from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico 300 miles East of OSH this year. Perhaps this prevented a big "second wave" of arrivals from the East and Southeast?

I was amazed to be only one of two or three planes arriving early AM on Saturday. Usually there are quite a few 'weekend warriors' that try to make it in at the last minute. Not so this year. We only heard/saw a Cirrus between the time I started listening to Fisk Approach WELL before Ripon all the way through tower and down to the runway.

We got parked in Row 510 right next to the runway, and there were several empty spots around us until we left Sunday afternoon. Even so, the airshow crowd was thicker than I have ever seen it - (maybe a lot of locals coming in for the airshow + Dunham combination?).

 

[gprellwitz]

(maybe a lot of locals coming in for the airshow + Dunham combination?).

How well attended was Dunham? A lot of people I know were on the fence between going to it and bugging out Saturday afternoon.

 

[mcjon77]

One thing to keep in mind is that the majority of people who attend Airventure are NOT pilots. I've gone the past two years and I'm not a pilot (yet). The person who first told me about airventure 17 years ago used to go with his family every year and none of them are pilots. Almost half of the teacher's husbands in the university department my mother works went this year and none of them are pilots.

The dates are fixed every year for ease of planing (I think that they already released the dates for the next three years). Many people book their reservations REAL early, so a slight shift in the economy isn't enough to deter them. IIRC, gas is not as expensive as it was last year. There are a huge range of habitation options covering the price gamut (hotels of varying quality/price, the YMCA, the dorms, camping).

When you really think about it, Airventure is closer to disney world than a car show. The shear number of things to see and activities to participate in will keep anyone from being bored. Also the ticket prices for those bringing there family are a good deal. I have heard that in this recession airshow attendance has increased. After being in Oshkosh last week I believe it.

 

[CJones]

How well attended was Dunham? A lot of people I know were on the fence between going to it and bugging out Saturday afternoon.

Absolutely PACKED!!! I wasn't there last year to compare crowd sizes. The 'theater' itself was obviously beyond capacity, with people sitting/standing from the bordering wood fences on the north and south side and running clear back toward the east all the way to the taxiway as far as I could tell. They had multiple 'jumbo screens' set up for viewing from afar.

I didn't realize how many people were there until AFTER the show when people were all trying to move at the same time. Imagine shoulder-to-shoulder traffic (a la exhibitor buildings), only as far as you can see in any direction along the walkways. I would say at least half to 2/3 of the crowd went out the gate to Camp Schoeller or car parking.

IF he is there next year, I probably won't fight the crowd. It's a GREAT show, but I've been there and done that now.

 

[TMetzinger]

Jeff Dunham crowd was estimated at 15,000, which made me VERY glad I left early.

 

[bullwinkle]

The answer, of course, is sunspots.

 

[CJones]

Jeff Dunham crowd was estimated at 15,000, which made me VERY glad I left early.

Interesting. When I was telling my wife how many people were there, I said at least 10,000.

 

[steingar]

I'm sorry I missed the parties Jay. Ames is far out of my way, but I missed the one in the North 40. Just didn't know where it was, or I would've been there.

 

[flyer]

I think that a lot of people were planning on OSH being their one big flight this year. Thus they saved for it and planned for it.

That is true with me every year. OSH is the only long x country I make each year and the only one I can afford. Im starting savings for next year now, lol.

 

[Jay Honeck]

I'm sorry I missed the parties Jay. Ames is far out of my way, but I missed the one in the North 40. Just didn't know where it was, or I would've been there.

Ames? AMES? That's the "other college town" in Iowa, whose name we don't mention until we're kicking their butts in football...



Our 8th Annual Fly-In Pool Party will be held next July 24th -- in IOWA CITY, Iowa...

As for the N40 party, I thought someone posted our row number here? Sorry about that...

 

[rpadula]

The answer, of course, is sunspots.

Or lack thereof.

 

[gprellwitz]

I'm sorry I missed the parties Jay. Ames is far out of my way, but I missed the one in the North 40. Just didn't know where it was, or I would've been there.

Well, so you can find it next year, remember where we picked you up to go to the White House, just outside Friar Tucks? Head along the fence there, and Jay's setup was a couple hundred yards west, next to the fence gate.

 

[steingar]

Well, so you can find it next year, remember where we picked you up to go to the White House, just outside Friar Tucks? Head along the fence there, and Jay's setup was a couple hundred yards west, next to the fence gate.

Damn, it was a short walk. Just didn't know. Phooey!

 

[tonycondon]

Ames? AMES? That's the "other college town" in Iowa, whose name we don't mention until we're kicking their butts in football...

So you must not mention it very often. Maybe this year we'll beat you with a touchdown!

 

[Jay Honeck]

So you must not mention it very often. Maybe this year we'll beat you with a touchdown!

Hee hee! I hope not.

I'm always glad when we play you guys in Ames. Our facility can't take a bunch of Iowa State fans more often than every other year...



(True story: We have rarely had anything stolen in the 7 years we've been open. One major exception: The Iowa Hawkeye Flag that we flew out front. It lasted about 20 minutes the first weekend the Cyclones came to town! I guess that was a bit too much like waving a red flag in front of a bull, eh? :smile: )

 

[tonycondon]

yea you deserved that one.

 

[timwinters]

(True story: We have rarely had anything stolen in the 7 years we've been open. One major exception: The Iowa Hawkeye Flag that we flew out front. It lasted about 20 minutes the first weekend the Cyclones came to town! I guess that was a bit too much like waving a red flag in front of a bull, eh? :smile: )

A little birdie told me it's in Wichita.
:smile:

 

[N801BH]

This was the first time I flew to OSH. Drove in twice before. Landed 11 am Sat before the show. kinda heavy traffic between Ripon and the arrival. I LOVED it... I spent the whole week answering questions about my toy that was parked in the Zenith booth. Left first thing Fri morning. I purposely feed it full power so all you campers had to wake up and could hear good ol US V-8 horsepower.

IMHO,,, the place was almost too crowded..

Ben.

Having just returned from our 27th Airventure, I can attest to the fact that it was well-attended. The numbers just released by EAA support that observation -- attendance rose 12% from 2008.

As importantly, it was conducted with very few "stupid pilot tricks" observed. To my knowledge there were few incidents, no accidents, and no fatalities, for which we are all grateful.

I am having trouble reconciling all of this with what we're observing and reading about with regard to GA. GA flying is down in double-digits, GA manufacturers are facing their worst year, ever, and I can attest to the fact that NO ONE is flying on most days in our neck of the woods. Our fly-in business at the hotel is at historic lows. (Well, especially now, with our airport closed for runway reconstruction... . But even before that our fly-in numbers were way down.)

Yet, despite all this, attendance at OSH was UP, and safer than ever. How is this possible?

Here are some other aspects of this question to ponder:

1. How is it possible that pilots who are flying fewer hours than ever were able to safely transition through the FISK approach, into the busiest airspace in the world, without incident? This, as opposed to prior years, when there were more hours flown yet more (and more serious) incidents?

2. How is it possible that every economic indicator shows GA (and the overall economy) in the dumpster, yet attendance at OSH rose 12% from last year?

This is an interesting -- and encouraging -- phenomenon. Long-time industry observers (like Flying Mag's J. Mac MacClellan) are as puzzled by this as I am.

Wot say the group?

 

[bbchien]

Ames? AMES? That's the "other college town" in Iowa, whose name we don't mention until we're kicking their butts in football...



Our 8th Annual Fly-In Pool Party will be held next July 24th -- in IOWA CITY, Iowa...

As for the N40 party, I thought someone posted our row number here? Sorry about that...

I need to Thank Jay for hosting the poolside party.

There was some very interesting company there, including a family practice doc who had done some time in Shishmaref, Alaska, whose name I am slipping just now.

We did make it to OSH, though only on Saturday, Aug 1.

Thanks, Jay.

 

[Steve]

I monitor the 9/27 twr freq during the week (which also happens to be the warbird arrival initial freq) and there were several hours on Saturday when the tower broadcasted in the blind "Any inbounds for OSH?". Never heard them do that before in the middle of the day...30 minutes before closing time, yes.

Warbird count was down about 50 from the usual 400 or so for the week, but there were more P-40's (5) on the field than in recent history. Also, the P-51 count reached 21, which is on par with the usual 20-25 that attend. I think the no shows were primarily T-6's and T-34s, although there was a large contingent of Navy T-34C's at the end of the week show up. A Marine T-34C flew in from Miramar early in the week, too.

Weather was big factor this year, imho. Not necessarily on the field, but getting to it.

I was amazed to be only one of two or three planes arriving early AM on Saturday. Usually there are quite a few 'weekend warriors' that try to make it in at the last minute. Not so this year. We only heard/saw a Cirrus between the time I started listening to Fisk Approach WELL before Ripon all the way through tower and down to the runway.

We got parked in Row 510 right next to the runway, and there were several empty spots around us until we left Sunday afternoon. Even so, the airshow crowd was thicker than I have ever seen it - (maybe a lot of locals coming in for the airshow + Dunham combination?).

 

[bockwoman3]

Why would you think there is a causal relationship between Airventure and GA hours flown to begin with?

Just because there may be an economic reason that pilots are not flying as much does not necessarily mean that the public's love of airplanes has decreased.

IMHO, none of the guesses as to the numbers at OSH being up are scientific but pure guesses.

As far as economy, every time I talk to my sister she knows someone else who has lost a job. She has not lost hers only because the workers agreed to work fewer hours per week when asked to do so. Airline travel is way down, lots of companies are closing or laying off lots of workers (not to ignore the fact that there are also still new business starting up as well). To think there is no bad economy at all in my opinion is lack of knowledge, albeit the extent of the badness could be anybody's guess...depends on how one's life is financially right now I suppose.

As far as number of airplanes flying into OSH, the North 40 is not, despite some humble opinions out there,:smile: the only indication as to whether or not the number of airplanes flying in this year was up or down. It may be that overall North 40 numbers were down, but what about the South 40 (believe it or not, it DOES exist, just ask Ted.) the 195 presence was higher this year than Greg and I have seen it since we started flying in 4 years ago...don't know what numbers were like for the South 40 'cause I never go all the way down when we go to OSH to have a clue. Sorry Ted!

 

[bockwoman3]

How well attended was Dunham? A lot of people I know were on the fence between going to it and bugging out Saturday afternoon.

Greg and I did not venture over to see Jeff after all but visited with friends instead. Did go over to our airplane for a minute and noticed the crowd was AT LEAST as big as last year.