Avgas Prices

Chrisgoesflying said:
I think it would take a lot for people to stop flying because of gas prices for two reasons.

Number 1, cost of gas is probably the smallest expense of aircraft ownership. Let's take the average 50 hours per year private pilot. What's the difference between $5/gal vs. $8/gal... Maybe $1,500 extra? That's nothing compared to the cost of annuals, hangar space, upgrades, maintenance, etc. I'm paying nearly $6,000 per year for hangar space alone. Before I quit flying, I would probably try to find a cheaper hangar solution first, if I'd really have to recoup the $1,500 I'm paying extra for gas.

Number 2, income. This may not apply to all of us, but I would bet it applies to most of us here on the forum. Spending an extra $1,500 a year on something we very much enjoy isn't going to break the bank. Most of us could shake loose that budget from other hobbies we enjoy less, or put in 10 extra hours of work this year and make up for it. I would also argue that overall (again, doesn't apply to everyone, but I'm almost certain to most of us), we have more disposal income today than we did 5 or 10 years ago. When I started flying a few years ago, I probably couldn't really afford it but in those three years, I more than doubled my income (I would say, partially motivated by my new flying hobby) while cost of living did not double... Sure, it went up, but not 2X.
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Yeah and I try to apply this thinking to both auto fuel and flying instead of worrying. However, I think for a lot of us got to or maintain a financial position that will support owning an airplane by developing the habit of monitoring our spending and trying to be thrifty. Seeing such a proportionally large proportional increase in prices is... anxiety inducing.
 
My fuel costs when fuel was under $5/gallon was more than all my other costs combined. Now that it's pushing $7.00 at the home drome, I've already started cutting trips. It's more than an extra $1500/year, and my income hasn't gone up in the past 6 years either.
 
at some point, it's not just the extra cost but the total cost. When the hangar at KBED went from $505/month to $606/month, I bailed from the hangar. It would have been only $1212 more per year, but the total cost for the hangar would have exceeded 7 AMUs... I could paint the airplane every 4 years and still save money by keeping it outside instead.
 
I can afford higher avgas prices, but I have cut my flying substantially nonetheless. So have my airport buddies.

Aside from the big flight schools, piston traffic is way down. Part of the slowdown could also be the usual summer lull when temps exceed 105+
 
At our airport, where I'm privy to data as a member of the Airport Commission, we have not found fuel prices to be a major driver activity. The piston hangar queens are still rusting (corroding?) and the active owners are still flying. Definitely pinches more now, though, and fuel is now close to 1/3 of annual operating costs for me. My usual rule of thumb was operating costs are about 4X fuel, but recent fuel prices have changed that a bit. Turbine operations at the airport have exploded as the pandemic has settled into more of a nuisance category in the U.S. and more travel is happening.
 
I fly just about every day, and have for the past several years. I’ve noticed a slow down in the last month, and in my business I’ve noticed double the amount of credit card purchases vs check/cash purchases. It’s interesting to get different views from around the country.
 
I will say that in the past even at a $1 over other local options I used to always fill up at my home field to help support the FBO. Right now there's an airport a 10min hop away that's over $3 cheaper that's over $100 in savings for me on a typical lunch and back flight so I know where I'm going next time.
 
Racerx said:
Does avgas go bad as quickly as pump gas
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Mogas stability is measured in weeks... The ASTM spec on avgas, D910, implicitly requires at least one year shelf life. Most majors are willing to requalify old avgas by testing... fuel that hasn't been left exposed to air (opened drums) will typically pass.

Glacier Girl landed on the Greenland ice cap during WWII... when she was dug out of the ice 50 years later, the fuel reportedly was still good.

Avgas is a bit of a strange bird, because it is refined infrequently. Current avgas was probably refined 6 months ago. But prices still fluctuate to forestall potential future supply issues.
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Doesn't really matter when any petroleum product is manufactured. It's priced based on industry indices the day it departs the refinery ("at the refinery gate"). Makes sense for a retailer to charge market price, otherwise they'll be short $$ when it's time to buy the next cargo. But I know many government run operations don't...

Paul
 
Racerx said:
Does avgas go bad as quickly as pump gas
Click to expand...
Mogas stability is measured in weeks... The ASTM spec on avgas, D910, implicitly requires at least one year shelf life. Most majors are willing to requalify old avgas by testing... fuel that hasn't been left exposed to air (opened drums) will typically pass.

Glacier Girl landed on the Greenland ice cap during WWII... when she was dug out of the ice 50 years later, the fuel reportedly was still good.

Avgas is a bit of a strange bird, because it is refined infrequently. Current avgas was probably refined 6 months ago. But prices still fluctuate to forestall potential future supply issues.
Click to expand...

Doesn't really matter when any petroleum product is manufactured. It's priced based on industry indices the day it departs the refinery ("at the refinery gate"). Makes sense for a retailer to charge market price, otherwise they'll be short $$ when it's time to buy the next cargo. But I know many government run operations don't...

Paul
 
EdFred said:
My fuel costs when fuel was under $5/gallon was more than all my other costs combined. Now that it's pushing $7.00 at the home drome, I've already started cutting trips. It's more than an extra $1500/year, and my income hasn't gone up in the past 6 years either.
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I am planning to drive from Nevada to Michigan this year rather than take the plane.
 
Different kind of fuel. But I paid 220/ton 3 months ago.
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Skymac said:
double the amount of credit card purchases
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Credit card balances and missed payments have been trending up all year..

Going to be interesting to see how this all shakes out over the next 3, 6, 9, 18 months
 
.. fuel here as you would expect is outrageously expensive. Easily seven or eight dollars depending on where you are.. our club reimburses at a modest rate of $6.50 on the wet lease

Per the downloadable data from our scheduling platform though people are only continuing to fly more and more each month.. April and May were phenomenally busy, as was June. July's trending down slightly but people are still flying.. despite the $$$

Mind you, they're wet leases but the rates all went up $25 to $75 recently..


Unfortunately we are also a captive audience, people have no choice but to pay it or stop flying. Unless you want to fly a pipestral electric basically-an-RC joke plane for 10 minutes there is no other option. Not yet at least
 
Strange...at KAPA, Signature is $8, and is usually the most expensive while JetCenter $9.26. Of course most of us use the TacAir SS $6.96 if we really need to gas up. Even stranger, Signature at KDEN (DIA) is cheaper than at KAPA - but then, we'd have to pay the landing fee at DIA ($250 last I looked).
 
GaryM said:
That would certainly solve a number of problems.

Though Vlad is not the only head of state responsible for the current pricing crisis.
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He is part of the problem but we should take the wise counsel that says, "physician heal yourself". Most of the problems we have are closer to us than Vlad.
 
WDD said:
Looking at the numbers a different way. 182 burns 13 gal / hour. (Fly something else like a Cirrus? Even more) Price was $5, now will soon be $10. 100 hours a year flying. That's an addition $6500 per year, or $542 per month. ON TOP of everything else you pay for owning a plane.
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Absolutely right about that. I was referring to the average Joe private pilot and granted, I don't have any stats to back that up, so it's more like my own judgment/opinion which is worth right about $0.02 - maybe $0.03 with inflation - I would say the AVERAGE private pilot does not fly a Cirrus. I would say, the typical private pilot flies something along the lines of a 172, Cherokee, maybe a Mooney. Planes that burn right around the 10 gph mark. No question that some are more affected by the higher fuel prices than others, depending on the choice of aircraft but I was referring to the average. Additionally, some of the people who fly something more capable utilize their plane for business instead of pure pleasure so at that point, it becomes a business decision and only talked about flying for fun as a pure rec. exercise. Lastly, those who fly something more capable purely for fun, would they really give up flying due to fuel prices or maybe instead just consider downgrading to a more entry level plane?

WDD said:
Can't look at plane costs in isolation. ON TOP of the airplane expenses now have to deal with ridiculous prices to fill your car, buy groceries, and everything else.
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I agree, cost of living has gone up by a lot, compared to even last year. It shouldn't come as a surprise after all the gov't handouts during COVID but you have a point here. It is more expensive to fill up the car (2X in the last 12 months where I live) and groceries as well. But that goes up for everyone, not just aircraft owners.

WDD said:
You doubled your income, and should be congratulated.
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Double from a little is still not a whole lot so hold off your congratulations for a few more years - still working on getting to where I want to be ;-)

WDD said:
in fact saw the net worth (IRA's) drop by 25% - and still dropping.
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Net worth has little to do with how much disposable income people have for hobbies. My net worth is way down this year. It goes hand in hand with the stock market and crypto market, both of which are in the gutter as well as the real estate market which is keeping up but probably gonna dip soon as well. It has no effect on my monthly cashflow though. If my holdings are down by 20% or so, I lose 20% of my "net worth" but that's just numbers on a screen. It's not like I would be touching that money to fuel up my plane regardless of where the market is.

But as you said, time will tell if this current crises is going to have an effect on GA pilots. My guess (and hope) is that it will not. Maybe a dent, but nothing permanent.

Question: What effect (if any) did the 2008 crises have on the GA pilot community? I'm too young to know - I was a college kid back then and didn't care about economy too much. Did you know a lot of pilots who quit flying back then because they couldn't afford it any longer?
 
murphey said:
Strange...at KAPA, Signature is $8, and is usually the most expensive while JetCenter $9.26. Of course most of us use the TacAir SS $6.96 if we really need to gas up. Even stranger, Signature at KDEN (DIA) is cheaper than at KAPA - but then, we'd have to pay the landing fee at DIA ($250 last I looked).
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If GA pilots avoid Signature like many turbine operators do, maybe their 100LL tanks still contain the last, less expensive, load of fuel. That would be a funny twist.
 
Great question about 2008 - hope others can chime in. I got my PPL in 2020, so I have no idea.

As far as net worth not being disposable income - true, but when that happens you’re more inclined to cut spending just because. And if you’re retired and your “I’ve got to live in this IRA” just took that kind of decline, you actually don’t have that disposable income.
 
With the current political climate, I think we will be looking at crazy prices for petroleum of all kind until the next political cycle. Possibly something will happen as a result of the midterms. Before then, general petroleum prices coupled with the movement to change from leaded fuel, I think we could very easily see $9 for our aviation fuel.
 
I already see over $9.00.
 
Chrisgoesflying said:
Did you know a lot of pilots who quit flying back then because they couldn't afford it any longer?
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Anecdotal but yes, the partnership I bought the Arrow from, dissolved with their paper losses in the housing market (the airplane partnership was all HELOC smoke). The last remaining member, who sold it to me, took my cash to sink into a commercial property financing.

The other 4 partners quit and went back to their pedestrian lives. I met one during the sale, he tagged along and gave me his story. The first 3 got taken to the cleaners. Cash was def king in 2009-2014 and they had none of it. People like me had it, which is why I now own the toy. Circle of life.

One story out of many I've witnessed in this hobby through the decades. They were a few other on here on POA who no longer post/visit, who got burned around that time (late naughts early '10s).

This is why I largely stopped looking for the past 2 years and just concentrated on flying what I got. The window to start pouncing again cometh though, and that right soon. No crying in baseball... :D
 
AKBill said:
Payed $9.78 yesterday here in Juneau. That's up about $3.00 from 6 months ago....:(
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wait, don’t you Alaskans get check from the state for your share of the oil revenues? This years check should be a dandy.
 
hindsight2020 said:
They were a few other on here on POA who no longer post/visit, who got burned around that time (late naughts early '10s).
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There was a prolific poster on a Piper forum I used to visit before and during the financial crisis. He was quite vocal about having a substantial portion of his net worth in GM bonds since GM was too big to fail. I seemed to remember him being a retiree, routinely collecting his interest payments.

Well, he was partially correct. GM lives on. But bondholders were pretty easy to throw under the bus.

He simply disappeared without a word. From time to time, I wonder what happened to him.
 
Clip4 said:
wait, don’t you Alaskans get check from the state for your share of the oil revenues? This years check should be a dandy.
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Very true, we get a PFD check in October. It's been around $1500 +/- for the past 10 years. That really does not come close to making up for high property taxes, food, utilities, fuel for heating/auto/plane, not to mention air fare to get out of town. Not complaining it is what it is. I think this years check should be around $2000 to $2800 the powers to be are still hashing it out.

I don't want to get political as to why I think the economy in general is the way it is.
 
Your $2,800 would cover all my unleaded fuel cost for the year and I would be driving for free. So please no complaining.
 
Clip4 said:
Your $2,800 would cover all my unleaded fuel cost for the year and I would be driving for free. So please no complaining.
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You too can move to Alaska wait a year to qualify then submit your application for a PFD payment...:rolleyes:
 
Clip4 said:
wait, don’t you Alaskans get check from the state for your share of the oil revenues? This years check should be a dandy.
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I was receiving the PFD check when I lived in Alaska. All it did was barely cover one month rent.

Now a family of 14, 15 people....
 
Crude prices are only part of the puzzle, look at the crack spread, it's two and a half times what it usually is.

I was reading a newsletter in the New York Times about this, I would share it with you but it is subscriber only. The gist here was that refinery capacity has declined a bit since 2020, and refiners don't intend to expand since they expect the demand for gasoline will begin to decline in the later part of this decade.

For NYT subscribers this is the link: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/opinion/gas-price-gouging.html
 
With labor and other shortages at USA refineries, our average shortage, per day of capacity is 1 million barrels. We won’t see normalcy until the refineries get fully operational.
 
WDD said:
I already see over $9.00.
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Thanks for reminding me to clarify WDD. It is about $6.31 here. I look for $9. The places where it’s already $9, look for 12.

That’s my WAG. Let’s hope if my guess is wrong, it’s too high.
 
Time to get in the gas station sign business before every station has to add another digit.
 
Can the pumps actually handle fuel over $9.99??
 
There was an article a few weeks back stating gas stations in the west coast were undergoing reflash in order to accommodate the two digit entry left of the period. So yes, in selected regions it's already prepared for it.
 
Could they just meter and price it at half a gallon? Don't know the mechanics/logistics of the pumps.
 
just go metric and price it per liter (litre?)

that's it... it's a HUGE conspiracy to make us go metric...
 
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