As of 6/3/21, current used small aircraft market.

Paul V said:
they won’t be able to afford a home or an aircraft because they spend all of their money on avocado toast
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you forgot the /sarc at the end of your trope there. Otherwise the boomers think you're being serious. Remember they don't speak mEmE. :D
 
If someone was considering selling their run of the mill GA plane to get into a vintage one, this would be the ideal time.

I haven’t seen prices for Beech 18s or too many other vintage/warbird types increasing amidst this craziness.....
 
Fearless Tower said:
If someone was considering selling their run of the mill GA plane to get into a vintage one, this would be the ideal time.

I haven’t seen prices for Beech 18s or too many other vintage/warbird types increasing amidst this craziness.....
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Indeed. As long as they fully understand the back end cost inversion of such a niche trade I'm with you, it might be an interesting time to make the odd duck purchase happen.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
My prediction: Airplane prices won't go down. Instead the price of everything else will come up to meet them, i.e. soon everything is going to cost 150% than it did 5 years ago.
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Don’t they call that inflation! Ye Haw... buckle up fellas it’s a coming...!
 
hindsight2020 said:
um, the very article you listed debunks the trope. Experts? Some rando from Australia talking in tropes an expert does not make. I'm having trouble understanding if you agree with the avocado toast trope or not.
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it’s simple really. By not spending $20 on avocado toast, you have $20 more to put towards the overpriced $120k asking price on the 60’s vintage 172. At $20/ day it adds up pretty quick.

all joking aside, these prices are nuts and people have lost their minds. Paying over ask sight unseen is a recipe for loosing a lot of money. I highly doubt this trend will last. It’s best to wait it out for things to cool down a bit.
 
eman1200 said:
seems like all they have to do after they're done taking out a loan for a college they can't afford and have the gov't wipe their student loan debt, is buy a house they can't afford then cry like little beeyotches until the gov't wipes their mortgage debt. apparently you aren't paying attention to how it's done these days.

EDIT: NOT a boomer.
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I'm a millennial. Didn't go to college. Own 2 homes and an airplane. But then again I quite literally went full on get off my lawn when I was 23. Some displaced person drove down my very long, icy, unplowed driveway at 12:30 at night. Then got stuck. You bet I walked out with... protection.
 
Racerx said:
I'm a millennial. Didn't go to college. Own 2 homes and an airplane. But then again I quite literally went full on get off my lawn when I was 23. Some displaced person drove down my very long, icy, unplowed driveway at 12:30 at night. Then got stuck. You bet I walked out with... protection.
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Why do you need condoms to check on your driveway?
 
Paul V said:
...all joking aside, these prices are nuts and people have lost their minds. Paying over ask sight unseen is a recipe for loosing a lot of money. I highly doubt this trend will last. It’s best to wait it out for things to cool down a bit.
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Even if I want to buy now, I think I’m forced to wait...no way I’m buying without a pre-purchase, and if most are selling sight-unseen like mine did, I can’t compete with other buyers in the current market.
 
Here's my question though. Brand-new aircraft are expensive, priced way past what "normal" individuals can pay. There are only so many legacy planes out there and they are steadily getting older and breaking past the ability to repair. So the number of available planes is shrinking. How can prices decrease with a steady demand for these antique, affordable aircraft?
 
Salty said:
Wait a minute. Are you saying having people stay home from work and sending checks to pretty much everyone whether they have a job or not is going to result in inflation? Inconceivable.
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Don't worry, once they raise minimum wage to $15 everyone will be able to afford the rise in inflation... ;)
 
tawood said:
Even if I want to buy now, I think I’m forced to wait...no way I’m buying without a pre-purchase, and if most are selling sight-unseen like mine did, I can’t compete with other buyers in the current market.
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A friend has been looking to buy a plane for some time now and was trying to do the whole recommended "send me more pics, logbook, then we'll do a pre-by inspection" thing.
Best case, he was getting a few pages from the logbooks. Nobody however wanted to agree to wait for a pre-buy inspection, because all had buyers lined up who would buy the aircraft without a thorough pre-buy inspection, often offering more than the asking price.

Unless you feel comfortable inspecting an aircraft yourself or have an A&P buddy who comes with you to check it out, I think that it is currently very difficult to buy an aircraft. At least, if you want to do your due diligence.
 
Would be a great time to unload a junk aircraft.
 
mcdewey said:
Here's my question though. Brand-new aircraft are expensive, priced way past what "normal" individuals can pay. There are only so many legacy planes out there and they are steadily getting older and breaking past the ability to repair. So the number of available planes is shrinking. How can prices decrease with a steady demand for these antique, affordable aircraft?
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One thing to consider: as the market value of aircraft rises, the relative cost of improvements declines. For a long time, the conventional wisdom was you would not get your money back on a restoration, rebuild, or major upgrade. As prices on aircraft in good condition continue to rise, I think that premise is less certain, and buying a "project" becomes more viable. The price of an engine rebuild is not significantly higher than it was 5 years ago, and I would argue that the cost of avionics upgrades relative to capability has plummeted over the last decade.

So ... maybe it's also a good time to pick up a junk aircraft, as long as it has good bones.
 
Another angle on this - as the costs of legacy aircraft goes up, and if Vans et el don't raise their prices, the cost of building a plane (all in with tools, etc.) might become less than what you'd buy in the market. It wouldn't work for me, as I don't have 3 -5 years to give to living as a hermit in a garage.
 
Racerx said:
I'm a millennial. Didn't go to college. Own 2 homes and an airplane. But then again I quite literally went full on get off my lawn when I was 23. Some displaced person drove down my very long, icy, unplowed driveway at 12:30 at night. Then got stuck. You bet I walked out with... protection.
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What part of the country do you live in? I have a daughter I'd like you to meet......
 
Fearless Tower said:
If someone was considering selling their run of the mill GA plane to get into a vintage one, this would be the ideal time.

I haven’t seen prices for Beech 18s or too many other vintage/warbird types increasing amidst this craziness.....
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Can I sell my 172 for enough to cover the costs of running a Beech 18? Gas and oil...
 
WDD said:
Another angle on this - as the costs of legacy aircraft goes up, and if Vans et el don't raise their prices, the cost of building a plane (all in with tools, etc.) might become less than what you'd buy in the market. It wouldn't work for me, as I don't have 3 -5 years to give to living as a hermit in a garage.
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I've been told you can do a 51% build on a Sling and have it done in less than 12 months. That's a pretty attractive deal on a TSI.
 
Racerx said:
I'm a millennial.
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I'm not sure I'd claim that anymore. Millennials are so cheuge.

I think we're in the second roaring 20s, at least until the inflation hits. Eat, drink, and be merry for tomorrow we all go broke.
 
mcdewey said:
Here's my question though. Brand-new aircraft are expensive, priced way past what "normal" individuals can pay. There are only so many legacy planes out there and they are steadily getting older and breaking past the ability to repair. So the number of available planes is shrinking. How can prices decrease with a steady demand for these antique, affordable aircraft?
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1. When aviation fuel reaches $10 a gallon next year.
2. When the number of active pilots keeps declining as most are over 60.
3. When loose free money dries up with inflation followed by stagnation ...
4. When the number of A&Ps declines to a point that you have to annual at Class B airfields ...
 
My theory is

#3 will happen first, with #1 a possibility close after that. #4 seems to almost be a reality now. Hard to find a competent A&P right now
 
March of 2020 I purchased my 1965 Cherokee 180, low to mid time engine, 2 axis AP, IFR (no GPS) with good paint and great interior for $45,000. It was listed on Beechtalk and was local, I was at the airport an hour after it was posted. There were four others waiting to come look at it. It was my present to me for passing my checkride. Perfect first plane.

I bought it that morning, paid him in dead presidents. The owner was so happy it was staying local and to a guy that would really fly it, he threw in a bunch of stuff from his hangar as he was getting out of flying. He texted me 90 days later that he bought a Cub. I should go ask him if he wants to sell it as he doesn't fly this plane either......

Last fall I was offered $55,000 for it, told the guy I'd talk to him in January, had to wait until the new year to pull some money out of an investment for tax purposes.

In February I got serious about selling it, had a guy offer me $65,000 for it. Wanted to make a run at a couple of Bonanza's locally first, got in a bidding war on a S model, and didn't get it. The other had rudervator issues.

I have around $150,000 cash to spend (sale of the Cherokee plus my cash from the investment), there is literally nothing in the market that appeals to me for that amount of money.

So now I sit and fly my perfectly good Cherokee, even thinking I might drop $20 grand in a GPS and G5's. But the avionics shops are all backed up six months......


A similar Cherokee to mine just sold for $70,000. One with a 750 GPS and G5's sold for $90,000, and I think mine has a better paintjob.

Crazy world we live in.
 
danhagan said:
1. When aviation fuel reaches $10 a gallon next year.
2. When the number of active pilots keeps declining as most are over 60.
3. When loose free money dries up with inflation followed by stagnation ...
4. When the number of A&Ps declines to a point that you have to annual at Class B airfields ...
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That would definitely be the doomsday scenario however the data doesn't seem to support all the above. The number of active pilots has steadily increased since 2016 and the largest demographic by age is 25-29. 78% of the active pilot population is < 60 so I think it will be some time before the active pilots age out. The number of mechanics has grown about 10% since 2016 as well although it appears they were on the decline prior to 2016.

I think 100LL will be banned before it hits $10/Gal but while I don't think it's imminent I wouldn't be surprised if it happened...

I don't think the loose and free money is ever going to dry up at this point. The Fed has painted themselves into a corner and the only way out is to stay the course and inflate their way out...
 
AlphaMike said:
I've been told you can do a 51% build on a Sling and have it done in less than 12 months. That's a pretty attractive deal on a TSI.
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...or even faster if you go full 'builder's assist'. Glasair has, for example, a fully FAA approved '2 weeks to taxi' program for their Sportsman.
 
idahoflier said:
I don't think the loose and free money is ever going to dry up at this point. The Fed has painted themselves into a corner and the only way out is to stay the course and inflate their way out...
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Ouch! So I *MAY* be flying a million dollar aircraft in the near future due to appreciation ;)
On the downside, after I SELL the plane, the celebration steak meal will cost $750:confused::eek:
 
idahoflier said:
I think 100LL will be banned before it hits $10/Gal but while I don't think it's imminent I wouldn't be surprised if it happened...
.
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100LL is already averaging right around $7 in the NYC / LI area now so I don't know about that.
 
IK04 said:
Cheuge?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheuge
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https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Cheugy&page=2

Fake word made by millennials in order to complain about Gen Z. This is the equivalent to how boomers would make outlandish articles about “sneaky teen text code” about millennial text acronyms. After years of suffering under a barrage of outlandish boomer headlines, millennials have become the monsters that they have despised and are finding reasons to be pressed over nothing. The word Cheugy is not used to describe things that could appear cheugy, but instead only ever used in the context of complaining about Gen Z.

“Gen Z has come up with a new word ‘cheugy’ to make fun of millennials”
 
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German guy said:
...or even faster if you go full 'builder's assist'. Glasair has, for example, a fully FAA approved '2 weeks to taxi' program for their Sportsman.
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Except they're out of business (for now, anyway)...
 
danhagan said:
1. When aviation fuel reaches $10 a gallon next year.
2. When the number of active pilots keeps declining as most are over 60.
3. When loose free money dries up with inflation followed by stagnation ...
4. When the number of A&Ps declines to a point that you have to annual at Class B airfields ...
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Unfortunately, I think a lot of planes will sit tied down and rot before people will sell at a loss.

2008 crashed when the money supply dried up because of all of the bad loans and people went upside down. Today is something different altogether.
 
sit n rot, sell at a loss. Distinction without difference.
 
bflynn said:
I'm not sure I'd claim that anymore. Millennials are so cheuge.
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For the record, I despise a vast majority of my generation. Shortsighted financial decisions and a lack of work ethic. Maybe it's because I built one of my houses by myself. Or maybe because a man bun looks absolutely ridiculous.

WDD said:
What part of the country do you live in? I have a daughter I'd like you to meet......
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See above. There's a reason it's just me and the pup. But if you're ever in Chicago...
 
German guy said:
Are you sure? First time I'm hearing about this, it even appears as whether they have updated their website.
2WTT was selling like hot cakes, they used to be booked out for more than a year. I know they paused this program, due to COVID, but that's about it.

Sportsman - 4 Place Backcountry / Crosscountry Airplane (glasairaviation.com)
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https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media...sair-announces-indefinite-pause-to-operations

https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/glasair-aviation-takes-covid-pause/
 
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