Amazon says months!?!

benyflyguy

benyflyguy

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benyflyguy
https://www.yahoo.com/news/amazon-says-drone-deliveries-coming-within-months-193452458.html

So I have a lot of questions about this.

1. What is the demand for rapid deliveries like this?

2. In rural airspace that has a lot less air traffic this might be ok airspace wise bur that’s not where they would use this, I imagine it would be more in heavily populated areas- where the Airspace is much more congested? How’s that going to work?

I just see this as technology looking for a place to be needed.
 
If the price was reasonable and I could get certain items within hours of ordering I could see myself using it quite a bit actually. Of course living in the sticks I somehow doubt it will actually be available here.
 
Amazon has same day service in NYC. My daughter and her husband came to rely on it. If drone delivery “takes off”, I can see it becoming a game changer.
 
They will start it up soon, but as soon as one fails and cracks someone on the head they will be stopped for quite a while. I don't see urban use as rampant as suburbs and rural in the near future (less density population).
 
You think porch pirates are bad now, just wait until they start going after the drones directly.
 
Ah, but i can see them delivering to the back porch... Might be an advantage and harder to steal from. The other question is: what data are those drones going to be collecting while they fly?
 
Have they figured out a method of drone delivery to residents of condos and apartment buildings?
 
Everything that we have ever bought from amazon came via their regular or standard shipping methods and times. We’ve never paid for any sort of expedited shipping. I don’t see us ever using the current same day service or the future drone service. Is the need for this service that great? What are people ordering that they must have that quickly? If it’s a life essential, some folks must be terrible at planning. If it’s not a life essential, why not wait?
 
SkyDog58 said:
We’ve never paid for any sort of expedited shipping. I don’t see us ever using the current same day service or the future drone service. Is the need for this service that great? What are people ordering that they must have that quickly? If it’s a life essential, some folks must be terrible at planning. If it’s not a life essential, why not wait?
Click to expand...

It was really nice to get a dishwasher part (grinder) same day a couple months ago. Between the part and a YouTube video the dishwasher was fixed in less than 12 hours. I'm old enough to remember the days of driving across town to the appliance place (open 9-5 Monday to Fri) only to find it wasn't in stock and when I did get it the mystery of "ok, it looks like I have to take this out first" of assembly and disassembly.

Is it needed for everything? Nope - Nice option? Yep.
 
I have wondered about, for instance, a kid running up and grabbing the drone. Or a dog. I'm sure they have thought those things through. And there has to be limitations. For example, my front yard is heavily wooded. I cannot imagine a drone could get to my front steps safely. Maybe it could. Maybe they're programmed that good, I don't know.

It will be interesting to see how well they can make it work.
 
SkyDog58 said:
Everything that we have ever bought from amazon came via their regular or standard shipping methods and times. We’ve never paid for any sort of expedited shipping. I don’t see us ever using the current same day service or the future drone service. Is the need for this service that great? What are people ordering that they must have that quickly? If it’s a life essential, some folks must be terrible at planning. If it’s not a life essential, why not wait?
Click to expand...
I think it’s a further extension of Kaizen / Toyota style and keeping minimal inventory and money tied up in stuff that sits on the shelf.
 
SkyDog58 said:
Everything that we have ever bought from amazon came via their regular or standard shipping methods and times. We’ve never paid for any sort of expedited shipping. I don’t see us ever using the current same day service or the future drone service. Is the need for this service that great? What are people ordering that they must have that quickly? If it’s a life essential, some folks must be terrible at planning. If it’s not a life essential, why not wait?
Click to expand...

I spilled coffee on my keyboard yesterday morning while I was getting urgent worked done, and it shorted out.

Ordered a new keyboard via Amazon Prime, went and made breakfast, and 35 minutes later the new keyboard was on my doorstep. This is neither for lack of planning nor "not a life essential".

Where I live (10 miles away from Amazon HQ) we've moved on from next day or even same day shipping. 1 hour shipping is where it's at. But if you don't live within 10 miles from Amazon they will probably need drones and other tricks to make that a reality for more people.
 
midwestpa24 said:
You think porch pirates are bad now, just wait until they start going after the drones directly.
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I dont think I'm ordering a high value item via quadcopter. But it would be nice to have as an option for small ticket stuff.
 
deonb said:
Ordered a new keyboard via Amazon Prime, went and made breakfast, and 35 minutes later the new keyboard was on my doorstep.
Click to expand...

I'm glad to see a positive note about this.

I read an article recently about Lowe's getting in on this too. I think it's great. Do you know how many times I make a trip to the store for just one or two items, then back to town for something I'd forgotten or didn't know I needed? Right now I know I need more trimmer line from the hardware store (I prefer a certain brand) and I would gladly pay an extra $5 to have it delivered.

It's not something I'd use for bulk shopping like buying a cartload of stuff at Wal-Mart. But I'd use it a few times a week for odds and ends.
 
SkyDog58 said:
Everything that we have ever bought from amazon came via their regular or standard shipping methods and times. We’ve never paid for any sort of expedited shipping. I don’t see us ever using the current same day service or the future drone service. Is the need for this service that great? What are people ordering that they must have that quickly? If it’s a life essential, some folks must be terrible at planning. If it’s not a life essential, why not wait?
Click to expand...

So I live a good distance from any decent sized town. Closest with anything is 30 minutes away and they don't have much. More likely I'm making a 45 minute drive for anything but bare essentials, 1.5 round trip and by the time you factor getting ready, getting around the town, the actual shop time, lines, etc in it pretty much means half my working day is used up. Not to mention that stores may or may not have what I'm looking for in stock. We do plan ahead, anticipate what we need, and try to only make one shopping trip per week but stuff happens. Given that we also watch their TV streaming service Prime is absolutely worth it to have something in 2 days and save a trip somewhere. There are most definitely times when I need something and if I could pay someone an extra $20-$50 to avoid having to make the drive to town and back it's absolutely worth it. Costs me that much just to make the drive not to mention the downtime. Also it's just plain handy.
 
benyflyguy said:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/amazon-says-drone-deliveries-coming-within-months-193452458.html

So I have a lot of questions about this.

1. What is the demand for rapid deliveries like this?

2. In rural airspace that has a lot less air traffic this might be ok airspace wise bur that’s not where they would use this, I imagine it would be more in heavily populated areas- where the Airspace is much more congested? How’s that going to work?

I just see this as technology looking for a place to be needed.
Click to expand...
Just wait until several hundred of these lawnmowers are buzzing over peoples' neighborhoods. When that happens (and it's going to) it's going to be the biggest sh___show on earth. People have no clue how loud these things are. It is going to be a disaster.
 
mryan75 said:
Just wait until several hundred of these lawnmowers are buzzing over peoples' neighborhoods. When that happens (and it's going to) it's going to be the biggest sh___show on earth. People have no clue how loud these things are. It is going to be a disaster.
Click to expand...

And then they will stop. Amazon is nothing but demand driven.
 
I'm not sure I see the airspace concern. I would imagine these would all stay low enough to be no factor for anything but each other, no?
 
I agree, it's nice to be able to order a building material or part as i'm fixing something and not have to break my handyman mode (I just work on the next project until the part arrives). I do this for home improvement and car repair tasks.

so you get the wheel off, have new brake pads in hand, but now see that you're gonna need rotors too. Order them on my phone from the ground next to the truck and get them 4-8 hours later (I can keep doing other "dirty jobs" and not even have to clean up before completing the brake job).

their prices on auto parts are also usually quite a bit cheaper than schucks/etc.
 
I’m dreading the noise of these things
 
skier said:
I’m dreading the noise of these things
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This is ultimately why it is a dead end, unless they find a way to make them a whole lot quieter than they are. Think of all the folks who complaint about airport noise. Multiply that by 1,000.
 
Jeff Oslick said:
This is ultimately why it is a dead end, unless they find a way to make them a whole lot quieter than they are. Think of all the folks who complaint about airport noise. Multiply that by 1,000.
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I have never complained about airport or aircraft noise in my life whether it be GA or airline but I can see myself filing a complaint anytime one of these annoys me while I’m at home.

We are all aware of the arguments about moving into a house next to an airport and then complaining about the noise. Well guess what? We all live next to an airport now and it moved in after we did.

I will become a NIMBY for the first time in my life.
 
When I do insurance inspections on homes, the neighbors almost never know I am there with a drone unless they walk outside and see me. Even the largest ones I have flown sound more quiet than say a lawnmower at a distance.
 
overdrive148 said:
When I do insurance inspections on homes, the neighbors almost never know I am there with a drone unless they walk outside and see me. Even the largest ones I have flown sound more quiet than say a lawnmower at a distance.
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At my last job, I kept my boss' DJI Pro for over a year, making pictures of job sites. I did not think it was loud at all. But I'm sure the Amazon ones will be considerably larger considering they have to carry more weight.
 
This will be the most annoying thing ever.
 
Fallsrider said:
At my last job, I kept my boss' DJI Pro for over a year, making pictures of job sites. I did not think it was loud at all. But I'm sure the Amazon ones will be considerably larger considering they have to carry more weight.
Click to expand...
The heaviest one I've flown has an unloaded weight of 21lb and a max weight of 33lb (Matrice M600). You can definitely tell when it's operating near you but it's not overly loud at a distance.
 
California will probably require them to do an environmental impact study before being allowed operate. That should take about 50 years in the court system.
 
Fallsrider said:
At my last job, I kept my boss' DJI Pro for over a year, making pictures of job sites. I did not think it was loud at all. But I'm sure the Amazon ones will be considerably larger considering they have to carry more weight.
Click to expand...

overdrive148 said:
The heaviest one I've flown has an unloaded weight of 21lb and a max weight of 33lb (Matrice M600). You can definitely tell when it's operating near you but it's not overly loud at a distance.
Click to expand...

That's pretty unscientific. If I look online, I can find people that took measurements of the sound levels put out by DJI's products. Those report anywhere from 74-79dB (mavic spark, mavic air, and mavic pro) - https://www.wetalkuav.com/ultimate-dji-sound-test/

For those of you that aren't familiar, here's a link showing some common comparisons (you can find other similar charts elsewhere):
Soft Whisper - 30 dB
Quiet residential area - 40 dB
Babbling brook - 40 dB
Light Traffic - 50 dB
Normal Conversation - 60 dB
Passenger Car - 70 dB
Vacuum cleaner - 73 dB
Alarm Clock - 73 dB
Coffee Grinder - 75 dB
Power Lawn Mower - 80 dB
Heavy Traffic - 85 dB
Noisy Restaurant - 85 dB
https://www.creativefieldrecording.com/2017/11/01/sound-effects-decibel-level-chart/

Wikipedia said:
In the branch of experimental psychology focused on sense, sensation, and perception, which is called psychophysics, a just-noticeable difference or JND is the amount something must be changed in order for a difference to be noticeable, detectable at least half the time (absolute threshold).[1] This limen is also known as the difference limen, difference threshold, or least perceptible difference...For amplitude, the JND for humans is around 1 dB
Click to expand...

I live in a "quiet residential area", approximated above at 40dB

From the pictures in the article above it looks like the sound level was measured 2 feet away from the quadcopter. Let's use 74dB as the sound level of the quadcopter at that distance (the lowest measured value).

Sound level decreases 6dB for every doubling of the distance. That means the quadcopter would cross the JND threshold at 89ft away from me (possibly vertically).

If the routes are programmed such that the quadcopters fly at 100 ft altitude and then drop straight onto somebody's property I shouldn't ever hear it.

Note that the quadcopters used in this analysis are pretty small with essentially 0 payload capacity which wouldn't be much use for Amazon. Ok, so let's now take that loudest of the DJI products mentioned - still a small product. That's 79dB (5dB more than the previous analysis). It would now need to be flying 159 ft. away from me.

Let's assume I live in a typical residential neighborhood in NJ, CT, etc. and every house has .5 acres of land. That's a square, 147 ft on each side. That means that if I'm standing exactly in the center of my property I will hear the quadcopter delivering his package. If the quadcopters are still flying at 100ft, I would hear it overhead at 45dB (which may be enough to be annoying)

I'm assuming amazon's quadcopters will be larger still. And there will be one flying to and from each house a package is being delivered to (think of the shear number of these things).

It will likely be enough to be annoying.

Jeff Oslick said:
California will probably require them to do an environmental impact study before being allowed operate. That should take about 50 years in the court system.
Click to expand...
As well they should

Data from Wikipedia on the health affects of noise on Humans:
Wikipedia said:
Noise has been associated with important cardiovascular health problems, particularly hypertension.[14][15][16] Noise levels of 50 dB(A) at night may also increase the risk of myocardial infarction by chronically elevating cortisolproduction.[17][18][19] Roadway noise levels are sufficient to constrict arterial blood flow and lead to elevated blood pressure. Vasoconstriction can result from elevated adrenaline levels or through medical stress reactions.
Click to expand...

Wikipedia said:
Sudden impulse noises are typically perceived as more bothersome than noise from traffic of equal volume.[30]Annoyance effects of noise are minimally affected by demographics, but fear of the noise source and sensitivity to noise both strongly affect the 'annoyance' of a noise.[31] Sound levels as low as 40 dB(A) can generate noise complaints[32]and the lower threshold for noise producing sleep disturbance is 45 dB(A) or lower.[33]
Click to expand...
 
Jeff Oslick said:
California will probably require them to do an environmental impact study before being allowed operate. That should take about 50 years in the court system.
Click to expand...

It would take an awful lot of drones to add up to the environmental impact of even a single airliner.
 
skier said:
That's pretty unscientific. If I look online, I can find people that took measurements of the sound levels put out by DJI's products. Those report anywhere from 74-79dB (mavic spark, mavic air, and mavic pro) - https://www.wetalkuav.com/ultimate-dji-sound-test/

For those of you that aren't familiar, here's a link showing some common comparisons (you can find other similar charts elsewhere):
Soft Whisper - 30 dB
Quiet residential area - 40 dB
Babbling brook - 40 dB
Light Traffic - 50 dB
Normal Conversation - 60 dB
Passenger Car - 70 dB
Vacuum cleaner - 73 dB
Alarm Clock - 73 dB
Coffee Grinder - 75 dB
Power Lawn Mower - 80 dB
Heavy Traffic - 85 dB
Noisy Restaurant - 85 dB
https://www.creativefieldrecording.com/2017/11/01/sound-effects-decibel-level-chart/



I live in a "quiet residential area", approximated above at 40dB

From the pictures in the article above it looks like the sound level was measured 2 feet away from the quadcopter. Let's use 74dB as the sound level of the quadcopter at that distance (the lowest measured value).

Sound level decreases 6dB for every doubling of the distance. That means the quadcopter would cross the JND threshold at 89ft away from me (possibly vertically).

If the routes are programmed such that the quadcopters fly at 100 ft altitude and then drop straight onto somebody's property I shouldn't ever hear it.

Note that the quadcopters used in this analysis are pretty small with essentially 0 payload capacity which wouldn't be much use for Amazon. Ok, so let's now take that loudest of the DJI products mentioned - still a small product. That's 79dB (5dB more than the previous analysis). It would now need to be flying 159 ft. away from me.

Let's assume I live in a typical residential neighborhood in NJ, CT, etc. and every house has .5 acres of land. That's a square, 147 ft on each side. That means that if I'm standing exactly in the center of my property I will hear the quadcopter delivering his package. If the quadcopters are still flying at 100ft, I would hear it overhead at 45dB (which may be enough to be annoying)

I'm assuming amazon's quadcopters will be larger still. And there will be one flying to and from each house a package is being delivered to (think of the shear number of these things).

It will likely be enough to be annoying.


As well they should

Data from Wikipedia on the health affects of noise on Humans:
Click to expand...
Lawnmowers are 80-100dB according to various sources on google including yours. String trimmers are 110dB. These will operate on average as far away from you as that at the least. I couldn't find any sources for the M600 sound wise but not every delivery is going to be with a drone. Far from it. These will only be deliveries where it makes sense to do so and the customer wants to pay for the service. Not every package going to every home is going to be done by drone.
 
Palmpilot said:
It would take an awful lot of drones to add up to the environmental impact of even a single airliner.
Click to expand...

Depends on what altitude the drones are flying at.

overdrive148 said:
Lawnmowers are 80-100dB according to various sources on google including yours. String trimmers are 110dB. These will operate on average as far away from you as that at the least. I couldn't find any sources for the M600 sound wise but not every delivery is going to be with a drone. Far from it. These will only be deliveries where it makes sense to do so and the customer wants to pay for the service. Not every package going to every home is going to be done by drone.
Click to expand...

True and there is no way to estimate what the total drone delivery level will get up to. It probably depends a lot on cost.

Where are they going to be launching their drones from? The local post office or the nearest Amazon facility? The nearest post office to me is 1 mile. The nearest Amazon facility is 13 miles.

Amazon services 46 countries according to their website. If the world population were evenly distributed that would be 23.6% of the population (1.76 billion people). 68% of the world population earns less than $10k/year. Let's assume they aren't getting deliveries from amazon. That leaves us with 1.2 billion people ordering from Amazon (probably still high). They deliver 4.7 billion (ish) packages per year. That's roughly 4 packages per person per year.

Let's assume I'm an average distance from an amazon facility and they're delivering packages from those facilities. Let's assume the drone travels at 20mph. That gives 1.3 hours of flight to deliver my package from Amazon or 624,000,000 hours of flight delivering packages to customers by air.

For reference and getting pack to this forum's topic (airplanes), the FAA says general aviation accounts for 25,212,000 hours of flight per year.

Seems to me like it's worth doing an environmental impact study.
 
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Palmpilot said:
It would take an awful lot of drones to add up to the environmental impact of even a single airliner.
Click to expand...

Airport require an EIS to build, or substantial modify. Low altitude drones have more of a potential impact on wildlife than airliners.
 
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