The International Air Transport Association reported 39 accidents during 32 million flights in 2022, of which 5 included fatalities. How many cargo flights would have to be made by artificial intelligence to prove an equivalent level of safety? I'm no statistics experts, but I'm guessing it would be in the millions.
IATA released its 2022 Safety Report for global aviation.
www.iata.org
I'm not advocating single pilot ops or replacing cargo pilots. Far from it. What I'm saying is that when you look at transportation mishaps, the majority of them are down to human error. When you look at road vehicles, the current crop of autonomous road vehicles are safer than human drivers, even accounting for the accidents that have been attributable to the autonomous cars.
Same thing with aviation. There is a reason that airlines would prefer that pilots fly their jets using the autopilot. You're correct that from a robust statistical standpoint, mishaps involving things like cargo planes are unusual enough that it would take years and years of testing to have a robust statistical test say that yes, the computer flown plane is safer than the human pilot. However we can compare rates of computer failure like the MCAS incidents to human errors dealing with problems in judgment, fatigue, drug use, improper training, etc you'll almost certainly find that the computer brain is more reliable.
THAT BEING SAID...
As I said above, I wouldn't want to ride in a jet that didn't have a human pilot (or two) up front. Studies of consumer preference found that most people wanted a person driving the bus, operating the subway, etc. I have a feeling that most people feel better knowing that in the front of every train there is a conductor and an engineer who have people or things that they want to go home to.
And then there's the more philosophical issue of what is our existence here about? Is it just to exist, and be safe in a pod? If so, why travel? We can look at videos and pictures of all the places we would want to go? Why go for a hike when we could walk on a treadmill? Going for a real hike is more dangerous. Why send people to space when we could send a probe? And yet we travel. We hike. We send people to space. I'm glad that we do all of these things because these things are part of the human experience. I've done research in traffic safety, some of which involved autonomous vehicles. My friends have told me so you must be all about a self driving car. I'm like no; you'll pry my steering wheel from my cold hands. I like driving cars with three pedals that turn dino juice into noise and motion. I ride motorcycles. When we start talking about making things automatic because of some increase in efficiency or safety, we need to weigh that against what we are losing in terms of our existence. Going back to the airplane example, think of the first time you flew as a kid. How many airline commercials have shown the interaction between a child flying and the crew? I remember when I first flew as a kid I was terrified of it but I saw the pilots as something almost superhuman because they directed this machine at incredible speeds at thousands of feet in the air between two points hundreds of miles apart. That little kid looking at the pilots disembarking is worth something, even if that something is not quantifiable.
Anyway... yeah GA is not responsible for airline delays. Even if I have taken a 172 into a Class B airport on a couple of occasions just to get those three letters in my logbook
www.avweb.com
