Which one has the cheaper hourly rate?
Aircraft ownership rush to Exit door
- Thread starter brien23
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It ain’t sold until the money is in the bank. I know of 4 sales that have fallen through in the last month when it came time for the check to clear.
dans2992
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Buyers backed out?
Yep. Excuses of all sorts.
FormerHangie
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I'm looking at the U. S. Energy Information Administration's product supplied figures for avgas, and they're almost completely unchanged from last years. If people were selling, I would have expect the amount of flying to have gone down.
Last time I looked, there appeared to be a lot more pilots than airplanes, which raises the possibility that most pilots fly planes that they don't own, i.e., that they either rent, or are hired to fly. Maybe that has something to do with the continued demand for avgas.
Pinecone
En-Route
In my case, I had two SELLERS back out at the last minute and one other that did not seem to really want to sell.
Cykoguy
Pre-takeoff checklist
Don't forget the aging pilot population. There are a TON of owners that likely will not be flying in 10-15 years.
Matthew K
Line Up and Wait
Other points--Car prices have finally resumed their normal significant depreciation schedule, freight markets are WAY down with lower container prices than pre pandemic, gas has become more reasonable, crypto bubble gone, and stocks way down...lots of money has left and continuing to leave circulation. Interest rates doing their thing.
But... a long way to go for anyone looking for prices to revert to pre-pandemic pricing.
But... a long way to go for anyone looking for prices to revert to pre-pandemic pricing.
Pinecone
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But new pilots learning and getting their certificates.
Cykoguy
Pre-takeoff checklist
I will admit to not being the best at math but to my knowledge the number of new pilots does not keep up with those that are/will be no longer flying. Also how many of those new pilots are in it for the airline career that never care to go back to GA?
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Vintage Snazzy (so my adult children say)
Looking at our club's flying hours, you can tell there was a definite pandemic bubble. The hours flown are now back to what they were. I would guess that the surge of people getting flight training is over as well. Given the lag of starting training to PPL, we'll probably see a drop in the rate of new PPL's sometime next year. Of course, airlines are still short pilots, but given the ticket prices lately I would also say next year mid to late we'll see some cooling of airline pilot hiring. (Hey, what do I know - just my swag here!)
Maybe end of next year or 2024? With inflation, probably not see a drop all the way back.
Maybe end of next year or 2024? With inflation, probably not see a drop all the way back.
Matthew K
Line Up and Wait
I think this is the big question. My general sense since getting into GA is that the avg age of plane owners seems to keep getting older, therefore when those folks sell, maybe there will be a bit of a flood. Could be wrong though. Also, if there is a flood and decrease in prices, maybe younger crowd will start buying up those planes.
schmookeeg
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I wish you would tell my local dealerships that. They still think MSRP is a rare gift only fit for the least popular 22 models that are getting updated for the 23 model year.
I can out-wait their arrogance.
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ktup-flyer
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182s are still high dollar
Certainly no drop in price on S models. I compared current 182-S models on Controller with the price I paid in early September. Options are all higher than I paid for an equivalent TSOH and avionics package. I guess my broker earned his commission.
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Vintage Snazzy (so my adult children say)
Yes - but they seem to not be going up as much, and for the older models seem to even stabilize.
FormerHangie
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I paid $2.69 per gallon for 87 octane E10 today.
Pinecone
En-Route
From FAA stats:
CATEGORY 2021 020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Pilot--Total 720,605 691,691 664,565 633,317 609,306 584,362 590,039 593,499 599,086 610,576
So, the numbers have been going up to 2014. And 110,000 more pilots in the US than in 2012.
FormerHangie
En-Route
The supposed increase is happening because student pilot certs don't expire. It's not like there are vast increases in the number of private ticket holders, more like it's holding steady.
The number of Private + Sport certificate holders is barely changed from 2016 to 2021. The number of Airline Transport and Commercial pilots is growing slowly.
wanttaja
En-Route
Not familiar with the pilot records...does ANY certificate expire? Medicals, yes, but when a pilot dies, what pulls his or her name off the roster?
I've had zero interaction with the FAA for 15+ years (flying as Sport Pilot) and the records still show me as active. Last Third Class is dated 20 years ago, but the restrictions still come up (must wear corrective lenses, etc.).
Do we have a situation like the aircraft registry twelve years ago, where aircraft keep getting added and added and few are ever removed?
Ron Wanttaja
FormerHangie
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For the most part, that has already happened:
Look at the dropoff in pilots who were 50-54 through 65-69 in 2015 versus now and the increase in pilots under age 40.
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FormerHangie
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I can't answer how the FAA keeps up with Sport Pilots, but the FAA stats are here: https://www.faa.gov/headquartersoffices/apl/2021-civil-airmen-statistics
Do you have to do a flight review every two years?
wanttaja
En-Route
I do, but is that input to the pilot registry? If I miss a BFR, do scarlet-clad demons draw a line through my name on the Sacred Scrolls? Then carefully rub the line out if I take a BFR a month later?
I *have* missed BFRs in the past, and wonder if my name gets turned on and off in the pilot list accordingly. Seems too darn efficient and on-the-ball for our favorite Government agency.
Thanks much for the spreadsheet. Wonder if the data is collected from during the same GA Activity Survey that the aircraft registry estimates are based on?
If so, it's subject to the same issues. Let's assume we have three pilots, Tom, Dick, and Harry, who all receive the FAA activity survey that requests their active/inactive status and the number of hours they flew in the previous year.
Tom replies that he's active, and flew 100 hours in 2021.
Dick hasn't flown for twenty years, and replies that he's inactive
Harry doesn't reply at all, as he is dead, and his heirs and assigns don't bother to turn in the survey in his behalf.
The FAA survey is only based on responses *received*. So the Survey assumes that 50% of the pilots in the FAA registry are active...when the actual number is 33%.
Still curious: If I fall off the roof while putting up Hogmanay lights and break my neck, how does my name get removed from the FAA pilot roster?
Ron Wanttaja
While I'm not 100% sure with active pilot records, the only purge of airmen records I recall happened when the certificates changed from paper to plastic. On the mechanic side once the paper certs were no longer valid and the person was of a certain age the airmen record was deleted. Outside of that there is no regulatory requirement that drops airmen certs unless surrendered or revoked unlike Part 47 records which require sending the registration in within 30 days of the holders death. For airmen its still voluntary but there is a FAA process.
Nick Geber
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Well I’m 57 and just bought my first plane. I make very good money but just couldn’t bring myself to spend 250 -1m+ I bought a glass equipped 1968 Cherokee 235 for a reasonable sum. I bought it in Canada where prices are more reasonable and imported it for less $ and hassle than people might think There’s very little “value” in the US market right now. I’ll be completing the panel upgrade this year and may add some Lopresti speed mods. I’ll be “all in” for a fraction fo the cost of something newer. Newer planes are a little bigger on the inside so that I miss.
Sounds like you did well! The 235 is a nice and capable airplane. I’d suggest posting some pics if you’re able - love to see it!
One of these days, I can see myself threatening to buy something similar…
Bonchie
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All I know is that I’m inundated with students, and most of them aren’t going to the airlines
Gilbert Buettner
Line Up and Wait
Flight instructor certificates expire every 24 months. They can be renewed in several different ways.
Gilbert Buettner
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Same here, more than 20 years of giving flight instruction, I can think of only one who went to the airlines. And one who is a fighter pilot. Most were just interested in flying for fun or personal business.
hindsight2020
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are you folks suggesting the majority, or hell even plurality, of part 61 instruction is not in the furtherance of 121/91k/135 aspirants? Personal anecdotes don't make statistics.
Gilbert Buettner
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No idea of the big picture; I can only tell you my experience. I am pretty active, about 250 hours a year with a dozen or so students most of the time. I have worked at my present flight school since 2010.
My students are all ages, from mid-teens to one guy who is 79 working on his sport pilot certificate. When I think about the profile of my most common student, it is a male, usually between 20 and 40, wanting to learn how to fly because "I always wanted to," not with a career objective.
SkyChaser
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I think it is often different based on location and type of CFI. I trained at two airports. At one, all the students were recreation-only. At the other, I only knew one other student there for recreational flying, and the rest were airline-bound. The former was a small, middle-of-nowhere field mostly used by crop dusters. The latter a small, middle-of-nowhere field that hosted the local community college's aviation program.
That fit my demographic. But I wonder how many in that demographic continue at it and actually buy a plane or continue to fly regularly. The last 3 years I haven't flown nearly as much as I'd like to. My covid project has been a doozy.
NHWannabe
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Where do you find Canadian For Sale planes?
In Canada, eh?
You can filter Controller and Trade-a-plane search parameters for Canadian based a/c.
Nick Geber
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Always up for bragging on my new bird lol. Here’s a couple of pics
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Dang, looks nice! Congratulations!
Nick Geber
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Controller, TAP, Barnstormers all have planes for sale that are in Canada