7-4 Bonanza down near Aspen

Wow. that's into really really rising terrain. After overflying the city of Aspen, it's a "wall".
 
bbchien said:
Wow. that's into really really rising terrain. After overflying the city of Aspen, it's a "wall".
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Yeah, looks like 4,300 feet, just to scrape your belly through the pass.
 
Heading straight for Mt. Elbert. Even though there's a pass near there, it's over 12,000' There are easier passes just to the north and south.
 
after thinking about it, DA yesterday was probably pushing 11,000.

leaving ASE, you are far better off flying west for several miles, then turning north, if you haven't got the altitude to cross the divide, continue north and go around the highest passes.
I'm not sure what pass is easier to the north or south. All the terrain to the east, and south is BIG, HIGH country, you'd have to fly considerably west to not have to go over 12k. To the north would be a tough climb at high DA, not 12k but over 11k. There are lots of plane wrecks around there, some that were not found for decades.
 
Looks like he was heading to Independence Pass, which is a huge mistake for a single engine aircraft unless it’s a Pilatus or F16. And neither of those would head to the pass without circling for altitude first. Actually, neither of those would do IP anyway, taking off from Aspen.

Let me once again encourage all you flatlanders to 1) get a copy (free and downloadable!) of the Colorado Div of Aeronautics map of passes and recommended routes and 2) go take a lesson or two in high altitude airports.
 
A fire TFR went into effect in the Vail Pass area on 7/3. Wondering if that was the route used to Aspen which gives an extra 1000’ of margin. Still not much but at least something. With that route blocked perhaps they chose to head to Independence Pass as an alternate.
 
murphey said:
Looks like he was heading to Independence Pass, which is a huge mistake for a single engine aircraft unless it’s a Pilatus or F16. And neither of those would head to the pass without circling for altitude first. Actually, neither of those would do IP anyway, taking off from Aspen.

Let me once again encourage all you flatlanders to 1) get a copy (free and downloadable!) of the Colorado Div of Aeronautics map of passes and recommended routes and 2) go take a lesson or two in high altitude airports.
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I have many rules of thumb for flying in the Colorado Rockies, but one of the most important is don’t assume you can out climb rising terrain. I suspect that if these guys had continued to circle until they were 1000’ higher than Independence Pass, they would have made it to DSM. That would have required 13k’ msl. They were at 10k’ when the started up the pass. It’s a terrible feeling when the terrain below you is rising faster than your airplane is climbing and you are climbing as fast as you can.
They flew 5.4 hours that day already. Their next leg was scheduled for 4 hours. The altitude they filed was 11k’. The top of Independence Pass is 12k’. It appears they canceled the flight plan they filed before they took off. But it also appears they didn’t really plan for what they flew. What a shame.
 
Independence Pass is not only Not Recommended, but Strongly Advised Against for pretty much all spam cans. Notice the pilots are from New York, may or may not understand high altitudes, mountains and resulting density altitude.
 
Looks like they started in Napa Co, CA earlier in the day. If so, Aspen may of been not much more than a fuel stop. It looks like a very capable plane, possibly newish owner. The route choice could of been much more forgiving, weaving around further North.
 
No one stops for fuel in Aspen, sure as hell not on July 4th! $6.15/gallon.
I don't see any TFR near Vail pass, the one just Southeast of EGE has been there for weeks.
Many of us DO fly the high country regularly, it is very common around here to go to 12,500 and drive around the higher stuff, sometimes we go higher yet. But, to cross the divide is not difficult, it more more intimidating for those not familiar. Going over independence pass isn't a big deal unless you don't know what you are doing. He probably did not lean on the the ground, probably did not lean for max power takeoff, probably did not continue leaning as he climbed. If he was going non-stop to Iowa, he probably had a bunch of fuel. He was likely heavy, it was hot, and it was high. I have crossed the divide late in the afternoon, usually I don't like to as its pretty rough and frequently thunderstorms in the area.
Pure theory on my part, but here goes. The pilot was NOT familiar with high DA operations, nor mountain flying, probably loaded up fuel fuel so they didn't have to stop for fuel on the way home. I don't know what direction he took off, but typically ASE is 35. Most likely made a quick turn to head up the valley. Flying up the Roaring Fork Valley east of Aspen, it climbs fast and there are a few narrow spots, like around Green Mountain which is where Lost Man Creek comes in from the north. He probably didn't think he could get high enough to get over Indepence Pass and the valley that is Lost Man Creek looks pretty benign at the beginning. Pure guess, but maybe he thought it was a lower pass and turned that way. There is actually lots more room to maneuver if you continue up toward independence pass. The valley gets pretty wide, there is space to easily turn around. Midway pass takes you over the hill north, but does NOT get you over the divide, you would still have to cross at Hagerman pass or even further north. All of those passes are around 12k. Further speculation is that he did not hug the side of the valley to give himself room to turn around, in the middle of a somewhat narrow valley, unable to outclimb the terrain, he was out of options.
 
I’m guessing that the stop in Aspen was a bucket list type thing. Little did they know that it would be their last item crossed off. R.I.P.
 
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Wagondriver said:
No one stops for fuel in Aspen, sure as hell not on July 4th! $6.15/gallon.
I don't see any TFR near Vail pass, the one just Southeast of EGE has been there for weeks.
Many of us DO fly the high country regularly, it is very common around here to go to 12,500 and drive around the higher stuff, sometimes we go higher yet. But, to cross the divide is not difficult, it more more intimidating for those not familiar. Going over independence pass isn't a big deal unless you don't know what you are doing. He probably did not lean on the the ground, probably did not lean for max power takeoff, probably did not continue leaning as he climbed. If he was going non-stop to Iowa, he probably had a bunch of fuel. He was likely heavy, it was hot, and it was high. I have crossed the divide late in the afternoon, usually I don't like to as its pretty rough and frequently thunderstorms in the area.
Pure theory on my part, but here goes. The pilot was NOT familiar with high DA operations, nor mountain flying, probably loaded up fuel fuel so they didn't have to stop for fuel on the way home. I don't know what direction he took off, but typically ASE is 35. Most likely made a quick turn to head up the valley. Flying up the Roaring Fork Valley east of Aspen, it climbs fast and there are a few narrow spots, like around Green Mountain which is where Lost Man Creek comes in from the north. He probably didn't think he could get high enough to get over Indepence Pass and the valley that is Lost Man Creek looks pretty benign at the beginning. Pure guess, but maybe he thought it was a lower pass and turned that way. There is actually lots more room to maneuver if you continue up toward independence pass. The valley gets pretty wide, there is space to easily turn around. Midway pass takes you over the hill north, but does NOT get you over the divide, you would still have to cross at Hagerman pass or even further north. All of those passes are around 12k. Further speculation is that he did not hug the side of the valley to give himself room to turn around, in the middle of a somewhat narrow valley, unable to outclimb the terrain, he was out of options.
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Looking at the map, it doesn't seem likely that anyone would choose to fly over Midway Pass. I have flown in that area quite a bit, but I have never heard of Midway Pass.

My theory is that while circling to gain altitude he got disoriented and headed up the wrong valley. Instead of following the Roaring Fork river to Independence Pass, he followed Hunter Creek. But with a moving map display, that doesn't quite make sense either.

Below is a flight path video created from the ADS-B data.
 
kyleb said:
Why is that? Higher, narrower, fewer outs?
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from coloradopilots.org:

INDEPENDENCE

Route: Leadville-Aspen. Highway elevation 12,094 feet. Weather reporting stations are at Leadville and Aspen. The pass is not visible to the Leadville weather reporters but the vicinity of the pass is visible to the Aspen weather reporters. This is one of the highest passes in Colorado and should be avoided by pilots of light aircraft. DBL131025, or HBU015045.

These guys are a bit on the conservative side...that said they run mountain flying ground training sessions a couple times a year and the training folks have more than just a little experience.

On another note some strange counter-flow has been observed in Independence pass which results in unexpected downdrafts. It is a rare phenomena and seems to occur early in the day.

As for 'outs' turning around is about it.

Much easier although longer routes are available. I like to follow the general course of the Colorado river (just down-valley from KASE) to about Kremmling then up to the Colorado/Wyoming state line. It's an easy route below 11,000.
 
sarangan said:
Looking at the map, it doesn't seem likely that anyone would choose to fly over Midway Pass. I have flown in that area quite a bit, but I have never heard of Midway Pass.

My theory is that while circling to gain altitude he got disoriented and headed up the wrong valley. Instead of following the Roaring Fork river to Independence Pass, he followed Hunter Creek. But with a moving map display, that doesn't quite make sense either.

Below is a flight path video created from the ADS-B data.
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Ugh watching that vid is haunting. You have to see at a point there is no way you are going to make it. Would be neat to have overlaid the altitude/gs. once your jammed into that valley heading up -would they have been able to 180 it out of there or are you pretty pot committed. ??
 
benyflyguy said:
Ugh watching that vid is haunting. You have to see at a point there is no way you are going to make it. Would be neat to have overlaid the altitude/gs. once your jammed into that valley heading up -would they have been able to 180 it out of there or are you pretty pot committed. ??
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It reminded me of the infamous L-19 video that was recovered from a fatal accident that also killed two people.
 
sarangan said:
Below is a flight path video created from the ADS-B data.
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Thanks for putting that together. There were so many clues of impending doom and so many chances to make a 180°. Very sad.
 
Rokke214 said:
It reminded me of the infamous L-19 video that was recovered from a fatal accident that also killed two people.
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I cannot comprehend why anyone would do that. There’s a giant rock in front of you, why would you just keep flying at it?
 
MIA said:
from coloradopilots.org:

INDEPENDENCE

Route: Leadville-Aspen. Highway elevation 12,094 feet. Weather reporting stations are at Leadville and Aspen. The pass is not visible to the Leadville weather reporters but the vicinity of the pass is visible to the Aspen weather reporters. This is one of the highest passes in Colorado and should be avoided by pilots of light aircraft. DBL131025, or HBU015045.

These guys are a bit on the conservative side...that said they run mountain flying ground training sessions a couple times a year and the training folks have more than just a little experience.
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And Independence Pass is NOT on the flying portion of the class.
On another note some strange counter-flow has been observed in Independence pass which results in unexpected downdrafts. It is a rare phenomena and seems to occur early in the day.

As for 'outs' turning around is about it.

Much easier although longer routes are available. I like to follow the general course of the Colorado river (just down-valley from KASE) to about Kremmling then up to the Colorado/Wyoming state line. It's an easy route below 11,000.
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PPL certificate issued 2/2020. Records show the aircraft was registered May 2021
One month later flew from the east coast to the Rockies with a 18 month PPL, in a plane he just purchased.
Maybe the answer isn’t always Bonanza.
 
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After reviewing the flight path, if it is correct, he circled 3 times over town. From information a friend located, he was only averaging about 300ft/min. He flew up Hunter creek, which makes little sense other than it looks like a long valley without massively high terrain to cross. As he flew up Hunter, it appear he turned south toward Midway Pass. The last two minutes of the track his speed was just under 100kts, but only climbed about 200'. It would appear that the airplane was just not going to go any higher. Perhaps really heavy, and not making full power. Service ceiling is listed as 18,500, which is probably generous. The hunter creek valley is really pretty wide, but high terrain. As you approach the end of the valley the terrain rises rapidly.
He probably could have turned around, but had very no performance left.
There are numerous wrecks in the area. A few are from trying to fly over independence pass to the east. There is a phenomenon that I have read about where barometric pressure is lower in Aspen and higher in Leadville creating a low level flow of air creating down drafts on the western side of the divide. At the time of day this happened, any winds NOT associated with thunderstorms would have been west to southwesterly, perhaps providing some lift.

From the track data, it appears he never exceeded 11,000'
 
Am I being naive (given that I have zero HA flying experience) or does it seem like it would be beneficial to reach your target altitude before shooting up the valley to get out? We are all about risk management and ADM in aviation (or, rather, should be), and it seems like common sense to say, hey... maybe I should get up to the altitude I need to get out of this bowl so that if, for some reason I can't get up there, I have all sorts of options that don't involve digging a hole in the side of a mountain. Couple of extra minutes circling to get up there wouldn't hurt all that much.

Completely avoidable. RIP.
 
Steve Costello said:
Am I being naive (given that I have zero HA flying experience) or does it seem like it would be beneficial to reach your target altitude before shooting up the valley to get out? We are all about risk management and ADM in aviation (or, rather, should be), and it seems like common sense to say, hey... maybe I should get up to the altitude I need to get out of this bowl so that if, for some reason I can't get up there, I have all sorts of options that don't involve digging a hole in the side of a mountain. Couple of extra minutes circling to get up there wouldn't hurt all that much.

Completely avoidable. RIP.
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The same principles apply in the mountains as wherever you fly. The goal is definitely be above terrain before approaching it. They needed a minimum of 13k and that would still not allow much of a safety factor for anything but an ideal situation.

If they were climbing at 300 fpm up to 11k I doubt they would have made 13k at all. And a fuel stop in Aspen, of all places. Not Rifle? Not Eagle? Good decisions were not made that day.
 
If you're flying behind glass you might want to spend three minutes watching this to familiarize yourself with the flight path marker feature, it could save your life. Start at 40:21 (can you link to a time in a youtube video here?):
 
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Steve Costello said:
Am I being naive (given that I have zero HA flying experience) or does it seem like it would be beneficial to reach your target altitude before shooting up the valley to get out? We are all about risk management and ADM in aviation (or, rather, should be), and it seems like common sense to say, hey... maybe I should get up to the altitude I need to get out of this bowl so that if, for some reason I can't get up there, I have all sorts of options that don't involve digging a hole in the side of a mountain. Couple of extra minutes circling to get up there wouldn't hurt all that much.

Completely avoidable. RIP.
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With the performance the bonanza was experiencing, I believe he reached the service ceiling. The last two minutes of the track, if correct, shows less than 100fpm climb at between Vx and Vy.
Circling to gain altitude was the only correct thing done on that flight, everything else was textbook wrong. I fly in the mountains all the time, I have to to get anywhere or to get home. We have lots of reasons NOT to fly at that time of day, this time of year thunderstorms are present nearly every day, its HOT, its turbulent, and often breezy in the afternoon. He flew up a valley that he could not see the end of, bad idea in any circumstances unless you have the altitude to escape the valley before you start. Its possible that they could have found some orographic lift, but it likely would not have been enough.
I have the performance to make the flight they started, but I still don't do it at that time of day or when loaded heavy. From what I have found, it was normally aspirated with approximately 300hp, but the empty weight is about 2800, plus 80 gallons of fuel, two guys, bags, etc... On a cold day the performance of that thing is probably unimpressive.
I suspect they didn't know they were dead until about the last minute or so of the flight. But, their fate was sealed when they turned to the south, up until then they may have been able to turn around. I don't like thinking about what they were thinking in those last minutes.
 
LINDZ intersection at 14,000 is in that valley for a reason. But he didn’t apparently have the rating.....
 
Morgan3820 said:
PPL certificate issued 2/2020. Records show the aircraft was registered May 2021
One month later flew from the east coast to the Rockies with a 18 month PPL, in a plane he just purchased.
Maybe the answer isn’t always Bonanza.
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Or Cirrus....
 
Morgan3820 said:
PPL certificate issued 2/2020. Records show the aircraft was registered May 2021
One month later flew from the east coast to the Rockies with a 18 month PPL, in a plane he just purchased.
Maybe the answer isn’t always Bonanza.
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I would be willing to bet there are flight instructors somewhere reading about this accident that are not surprised. Not even a little bit.
 
Flown into and out of ASE a number of times in a jet but never a piston GA airplane. I recall changes in their radar capability at some point. Is there flight following available after departing ASE’s airspace? Obviously you’d have to be above the terrain to be picked up by radar, but is it available just above that terrain?

I can imagine how the neighboring homeowners would hear a full powered Bonanza and its prop grabbing at air just over their houses multiple times as it race-tracked up to a higher altitude and I have to wonder what ASE tower must have thought when they see the plane departing their airspace going east climbing slowly out of 10,000 feet.
 
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The other person onboard was reportedly an ATP-rated pilot with several type ratings, but, sadly, didn't seem to make any difference this time. Though, sometimes, the big-iron guys get thousands of hours and many years removed from the realities of little-plane ops.
 
Even back east I like at least 2000ft above highest terrain. I once got into a downdraft near Pulaski VOR in Virginia that made me glad I had the 2000ft cushion.
 
I remember a few things about “Mountian Flying” from the years I live in Colorado and flew out of Tri-County and Longmont.


1. A Turbo is good. The engine will produce power, but it does not help the efficiency of the prop and wings.

2. If normally aspired take off early morning before the temps start to rise and lean for max power .

3. Fly up the side of the valley, not the middle, if you need to do a 180 you turn into the valley.

4. Cross the pass at a 45 degree angle, only a 90 turn to get away if you need to.

5. Cross with a minimum of 1500 feet over the pass in smooth air, more if there is wind over the ridge.

6. A -1000 FPM rate of climb at full power is not uncommon.
 
murphey said:
Relatively new pilot, flatlander, high performance airplane, mountains, summer heat, unfamiliar with the area, ...what’s not to understand?
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Unfortunately, I think we’re going to see more and more of this sort of thing. Lotta new pilots coming into the hobby with lots of money and little experience. Not knowing what they don’t know. Treating a plane as a flying SUV.

What annoys me most is that on this forum we often encourage the behavior.
 
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