172 Crash near KFWN (Sussex County)

Ed Haywood said:
:eek::eek::eek:
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Exactly. When I still flew commercial was on a 737 out of BNA that was turned back for precautionary landing after birds hit the turbine (literal smell of KFC in the cabin), and then witnessed at my home airport a Walmart twin jet pull power beyond the half way point due to avian ingestion (my A&PI/A and I inspected the blades and documented grounding damage) and then last summer turning downwind to left base a red tail appeared out of nowhere to my right and outperformed us in the turn. Then there's Sully. So I've gained a real respect for our predecessors to the skies. In truth it's more like fear lol. YOLO.
 
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N444MD said:
I haven't either but this accident http://www.kathrynsreport.com/search?q=rock+pigeon came to mind wherein an ATP and pilot passenger were taken out at 7600 msl by a rock pigeon.
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The passenger in that RV was a friend of mine, the manager of a local airport. Very sad.

I’ve cruised at 12,000 feet and seen flocks of geese above me. Birds take advantage of winds aloft, too.
 
Piperonca said:
Given that POA is Speculation Central, I will submit a question: what mistake(s) on a typical annual could cause a loss of control accident?
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Somebody could have left a tool in a bad place. Somebody might have disconnected something and forgot to re-connect it. Something could have gotten broke in the process of opening up and closing the airplane for inspection. Any number of things. Probably a good practice to do a functional test flight after an annual or major surgery on an airplane.
 
The ‘no mayday’ call makes me wonder if they were incapacitated, such as from carbon monoxide, especially given the experience level of the pilots.
 
Ed Haywood said:
Are we looking at the same track? I see one spike to 171 MPH at 10:34am. Other than that, the speed data stays under 150MPH for the entire flight.
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Edit: Late to the ball game…..The flight earlier in the same day (check Flightaware) shows ground speeds over 250 mph at times, with a lot over 200. So not the accident flight, but a few hours earlier.
 
What is strange is that ADSB goes silent at 6000. If they were in an induced stall, as the ADSB and altitude suggests they were doing, why is there no data all of a sudden. Usually we see a rapid descent with increased airspeed before it cuts out at lower altitudes. We've seen that in other crashes.
 
Flying Doc said:
What is strange is that ADSB goes silent at 6000. If they were in an induced stall, as the ADSB and altitude suggests they were doing, why is there no data all of a sudden. Usually we see a rapid descent with increased airspeed before it cuts out at lower altitudes. We've seen that in other crashes.
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Possibly the airplane was overstressed and a wing ripped off? Loss of wires, loss of electrical power and therefore no ADSB (SkyBeacon or otherwise)? Speculation.
 
Matthew Rogers said:
Possibly the airplane was overstressed and a wing ripped off? Loss of wires, loss of electrical power and therefore no ADSB (SkyBeacon or otherwise)? Speculation.
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That would be readily apparent on the initial investigation of the scene by the ntsb. step one is always map the scene. Inflight breakups have a distinctive patten verses an aircraft that contacts the ground intact. This one will require time to figure out.
 
Piperonca said:
Given that POA is Speculation Central, I will submit a question: what mistake(s) on a typical annual could cause a loss of control accident?
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The list is almost endless depending on the work done on the aircraft. There could have been exhaust part or heat muff not properly installed after inspection. Bolts missing nuts or not properly safety wired in literally dozens of places in the flight control system. Fuel system components not properly replaced. Oil system components not secured properly or again missing safety wire. Tools left under the cowl jamming throttle or mixture. Tools left in the airframe jamming the flight control system. You can go on and on!
 
Matthew Rogers said:
Edit: Late to the ball game…..The flight earlier in the same day (check Flightaware) shows ground speeds over 250 mph at times, with a lot over 200. So not the accident flight, but a few hours earlier.
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Would have to see 40-70kt tail winds to produce that kind of ground speed. Not something you see offer under 10k

looking at last few track logs shows it routinely was spiking its speed over 200mph. Made me think maybe it’s just FlightAware calculating speed weird??? but I looked at my last few flights in a 182 and a Lance and they rarely spike over that. The lance a bit closer but not often.
 
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Jeff767 said:
The list is almost endless depending on the work done on the aircraft. There could have been exhaust part or heat muff not properly installed after inspection. Bolts missing nuts or not properly safety wired in literally dozens of places in the flight control system. Fuel system components not properly replaced. Oil system components not secured properly or again missing safety wire. Tools left under the cowl jamming throttle or mixture. Tools left in the airframe jamming the flight control system. You can go on and on!
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I'm embarrassed by the lack of specificity in my original question. What would have been better is what is the most likely mistake on a typical annual.... That said, I'll vote for faulty exhaust part re-attachment. Could explain the lack of mayday. Tool in the wrong place is my runner-up choice.
 
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Piperonca said:
I'm embarrassed by the lack of specificity in my original question. What would have been better is what is the most likely mistake on a typical annual.... That said, I'll vote for faulty exhaust part re-attachment. Could explain the lack of mayday. Tool in the wrong place is my runner-up choice.
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Look, whatever went to hell in a handbag, no experienced pilot is going to be sitting on the mike calling 'mayday' instead of trying every trick in to the book to recover the plane. I would wager these gentleman were kicking the rudder in every direction trying to stop the spin and pushing the elevator forward to try and fly out of the stall/spin/whatever. They were also probably putting their chins on the dash and dancing all around the cockpit. Aviate, navigate, communicate.
 
Aviator, Navigate, Communicate. I have been out of control and observed aircraft out of control quite a few times. Never heard anyone make a mayday call. It’s pointless and possibly distracting.
 
N444MD said:
Look, whatever went to hell in a handbag, no experienced pilot is going to be sitting on the mike calling 'mayday' instead of trying every trick in to the book to recover the plane. I would wager these gentleman were kicking the rudder in every direction trying to stop the spin and pushing the elevator forward to try and fly out of the stall/spin/whatever. They were also probably putting their chins on the dash and dancing all around the cockpit. Aviate, navigate, communicate.
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True, and a horrifying picture you describe. CO impairment probably out because it wouldn't hit both competent pilots at the same time. Misplaced tool comes to the forefront. Though I'm even skeptical of that to be honest. Back to the speculation: what is possible in an ordinary 172 to go to hell like that, so quickly?
 
And back to that old truth that accidents are like swiss cheese layers. More things than one lined up and went wrong.
 
N444MD said:
Look, whatever went to hell in a handbag, no experienced pilot is going to be sitting on the mike calling 'mayday' instead of trying every trick in to the book to recover the plane. I would wager these gentleman were kicking the rudder in every direction trying to stop the spin and pushing the elevator forward to try and fly out of the stall/spin/whatever. They were also probably putting their chins on the dash and dancing all around the cockpit. Aviate, navigate, communicate.
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Hell in a handbag indeed...
 
I get why the general public wants a quick answer, and a quick fix, to whatever the problem of the day is. I even get why pilots want to figure out what happened quickly, too. But here, reads like two smart guys, at least one of which is highly experienced, maybe both, flying a 172 that may just have been out of maintenance crashed on a nice day. Weird data from adsb on speed, but that seems par for the course. I don't think there's going to be an answer on what happened until more data is found and released. So I don't get the speculation on birds, CO, Vne breakup, etc. It reads just like noise.
 
I agree nothing can be ruled out, but CO, bird strike, and structural failure are all inconsistent with the ADS-B data, which shows a reduction from cruise to stall speed while holding altitude.

To me, that is exactly what spin training looks like. 5K AGL is about the altitude I would do it at, too.

I've done a lot of spins. Had some acro sessions where I did 10 or 15 in a row, trying to master the recovery on heading.

Entry, first rotation, and recovery loses about 1000 feet. Every additional rotation loses about 300-500 more feet, or so I recall. If you start at 5k AGL and put in a 3 turn spin, you are approaching 3k when you apply anti spin inputs. Two or three more turns before you realize it's not working, and you are under 2k. At that point 6 more turns and maybe 20 seconds later you are a smoking hole in the ground. Making a radio call will be the last thing on your mind.

Given the ease with which a 172 recovers from stalls and spins, I have to think something was wrong with the airframe as a result of the annual. Since the aircraft was previously flown safely from the annual facility back to home, perhaps it took the unusual forces of spinning to cause the issue.

For example, a tool left in the fuselage would get thrown back into the tailcone by the centrifugal force from spinning, where it could jam the elevator control horn.

An aft CG condition could also cause a failure to recover from a spin. Not sure how you would do that in a 172 with just the front seats filled, though. An anvil in the baggage compartment? Loose battery slung rearward by the spin?
 
I was actually just contemplating picking an anvil up with my plane.
 
Ed Haywood said:
If ya don't pick it up, how are you going to drop it on the road runner?
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It's the sudden change in CG after dropping it on the roadrunner that now has me second guessing the decision. It weighs 160#, which is 10% of a C150 gross.
 
Albany Tom said:
I get why the general public wants a quick answer, and a quick fix, to whatever the problem of the day is. I even get why pilots want to figure out what happened quickly, too. But here, reads like two smart guys, at least one of which is highly experienced, maybe both, flying a 172 that may just have been out of maintenance crashed on a nice day. Weird data from adsb on speed, but that seems par for the course. I don't think there's going to be an answer on what happened until more data is found and released. So I don't get the speculation on birds, CO, Vne breakup, etc. It reads just like noise.
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I see it as good noise. Not if it’s like some kinda contest to see who wins the prize for making the first correct guess of the cause. But the speculations can be good reminders about something. Even sometimes something someone hasn’t thought of before. These speculations can be valuable to think about. May make the difference from someone becoming the next ‘mishap’
 
Witmo said:
Probably a good practice to do a functional test flight after an annual or major surgery on an airplane.
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My Sky Arrow Maintenance Manual includes a Check Flight Checklist:

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I always complete this post-annual. Above the airport just in case.
 
luvflyin said:
I see it as good noise. Not if it’s like some kinda contest to see who wins the prize for making the first correct guess of the cause. But the speculations can be good reminders about something. Even sometimes something someone hasn’t thought of before. These speculations can be valuable to think about. May make the difference from someone becoming the next ‘mishap’
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Spot on. Wish I could double like this post.
 
PoA speculation is now obsolete. All we have to do is wait for Dan Gryder to solve the mystery
 
“Engine failure after takeoff”
 
aftCG said:
PoA speculation is now obsolete. All we have to do is wait for Dan Gryder to solve the mystery
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And maybe that's the part that really bugs me. Not the speculation, but the "it must be this!" answers. That doesn't happen too much here I suppose, but the Internet is full of it, and the above is an example.

And maybe, thinking about it, loss of control itself hit a nerve. It was brief, but I've done it. Single pilot in that situation, the folks are correct, the last thing in the world you'd be thinking about is a radio. Rely on your training and fly the airplane. Fix it. Then breathe, swear a little bit, and carry on, if you fix it. The reason? Sometimes you just screw up.

So speculating about this one, the thing I complained about, maybe they were practicing stalls, and they inadvertently spun it. S**t happens. And maybe for whatever reason, they collectively couldn't get out if it. I can understand the spin, but I don't understand the lack of recovery unless something was wrong with the plane, or the two guys weren't cooperating well.
 
By the time this one is figured out it will be long forgotten and past our collective minds. So we are left with nothing but speculation in an attempt to sort out for ourselves how we may have done or will do better should it happen to us(this or any other accident). Personally I find value in these "speculative" discussions. Not to judge others but learning much from fellow pilots on many items, including how they do stall spins(here), and may other topics...often associated with the accidents discussed.
Related to speculation.... I wonder if we should have a separate "Mishaps" of accidents older than 2 years (and presumably with NTSB report complete). This way we have most of the facts and the final report to discuss.
 
benyflyguy said:
Would have to see 40-70kt tail winds to produce that kind of ground speed. Not something you see offer under 10k

looking at last few track logs shows it routinely was spiking its speed over 200mph. Made me think maybe it’s just FlightAware calculating speed weird??? but I looked at my last few flights in a 182 and a Lance and they rarely spike over that. The lance a bit closer but not often.
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There is definitely anomalies in the speeds in previous flights, showing 50 knot changes in airspeeds within 15 seconds with hardly any change in altitude. Most likely this is due to instrumentation. Does anyone know if ADSB-Out sends groundspeed information, or is this derived from the lat/lon information?
 
Solid-state chips that record pitch, bank, speed & altitude are *so* cheap these days. Seems a shame they aren't mandatory for GA aircraft.
 
Flying Doc said:
I wonder if we should have a separate "Mishaps" of accidents older than 2 years (and presumably with NTSB report complete). This way we have most of the facts and the final report to discuss.
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Hopefully someone digs up the necro thread from the initial report and posts the NTSB results, so we can see whether our comments aged well.
 
Hengelo said:
Solid-state chips that record pitch, bank, speed & altitude are *so* cheap these days. Seems a shame they aren't mandatory for GA aircraft.
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Well until electrical systems are mandatory on GA aircraft seems like a moot point.;)
 
aftCG said:
PoA speculation is now obsolete. All we have to do is wait for Dan Gryder to solve the mystery
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Ask and you shall receive. Did not take long for DG to provide expert speculation! Ughhh the second half of this video that is...the first half some will hope that the parachute doesn't deploy or the trees win...no such luck (just kidding, don't wish anyone harm glad he made it down)

 
DG brings up a good point. What accounts for the sudden loss of ADSB.
Not a parachuter but there is parachute op at our home field. Don’t see many ppl landing like he did. Thought he almost broke his legs!!
 
benyflyguy said:
DG brings up a good point. What accounts for the sudden loss of ADSB.
Not a parachuter but there is parachute op at our home field. Don’t see many ppl landing like he did. Thought he almost broke his legs!!
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Yeah it seemed that he threaded the needle between a house and a bunch of trees and the knees gave out. Dan u da man! That stuff scares me. Flying am ok with, mountain climbing also..but it seems that if you are bit to right or left you hit something painful...not to mention if the backpack does not work as promised.
 
I only watched part of the video, and with the sound off (arguably the least painful way to watch Gryder), so he may have addressed this, but as a one-time skydiver I have to ask WHAT KIND OF IDIOT JUMPS WITHOUT A HELMET?!
 
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