100LL price killing GA

The only people I see left in aviation are those where time spent isn't connected to their income....Doctor's and Lawyers with good practices that are self sustaining, successful property owners (rental) or successful biz types that have ownership that doesn't require involvement.

I agreed with a number of your statements, but this one just doesn't hold water. There's a significant number of members of THIS board who are younger and don't own businesses. They fly. A ton of younger folk at the local flight clubs too. Maybe a slightly older demographic at the Cirrus club. But any given weekend day I'm easily the oldest guy on the ramp at my hangar watching the kids and their instructors walking to airplanes.

I've also never met a Doc or Lawyer or small business owner who wasn't perennially on-call. I've also been on-call in one way or another my whole career. (Telecom and IT) On-call folks jus deal with it. My airplane co-owner owns a small biz. He has good staff and I've never seen him called more than a handful of times about things off-hours. He DOES get a few calls directly from clients and he takes those. But that's just normal.

I'm still convinced many of the things you mention (long hours, needing to impress the boss) are brought upon folks by themselves by the size and price of the things they buy. Not so much that they HAVE to work that hard, except that they wanted "stuff". In fact the Millennial crowd values "experiences" over "stuff" more than any generation since before mine. They're at the age now where they have some disposable income and due to the job market and lower initial incomes, many grew up quite frugal, so when they finally did start making good salaries, they're more willing to spend it on "adventures" rather than housing, cars, etc.

One of my co-workers and my little sister are certainly this way. Reasonable little cars that aren't very new, if they're single they still have roommates to keep housing down, etc. I've watched my co-worker get more and more interested in doing stuff and he's kept his expenses down as his salary has risen. He's not into airplanes, but he's taking regular ski trips and other travel and doesn't overspend. He bought an older townhouse and is starting to enjoy life. Same with my sis. Took her forever to get life started and she has a Masters in Architecture. Now she's doing great and we recall when she got the first "real job" she was still volunteering at a community garden to share in a bumper crop of fresh veggies. She joked that she still didn't realize she had money in the bank that she could just use to buy veggies. Ha.

They're a pretty resilient bunch. I see behaviors of MY parents and my wife's parents in them. One of the co-workers favorite past times is playing board games with friends or cards. He goes to a local pub who figured out this trend that has an entire wall full of them, and runs a couple of trivia contests per week, too. A lot of entertainment for very low dollars. He grabs a beer and a burger, hangs out with new people and plays games.

They're pretty resilient folk really. Their careers may not have taken off until they were 30, but they're making up for lost time. If. And it's a big if. They didn't sign up for massive debt. Or. They already got over it and sold off the toys and maybe even downsized the house or just busted butt to get raises and have some wiggle room above and beyond the mortgage.

The question is: Are there enough of them? Like I said on another post though, I see plenty of activity going on inside aviation, even if it's a lower number, everyone is busy. And I don't say that with any pie in the sky expectations of the CFI rating -- I don't need the job. But I don't see any instructors who are bored if they're going to the airport regularly.

I think your story is where we were a few years back, still sneaking out of a recession slowly, that no politician would say was one. But right at the moment, the younger crowd is showing up. Some of that is airline hiring driven. Quite a bit of it, probably. People didn't spend tens of thousands to train when they weren't, and that's changed. It'll change again, of course. Cycles. But right now, there's a number of right seat hopefuls training for things, too.
 
Prices should come down with the introduction of lead-free fuels, no?

Just happy my old girl likes 87-89 octane, ethanol-free mogas, although it's a PITA hauling it around.
 
Y'all sure can be melodramatic!

"Final nails" ... "killing GA" ... jeez! If we're facing aviation Armageddon, somebody should tell the 10 or 12 pilots I heard buzzing around my tiny slice of East Texas last night at sunset. Guess I'm too busy burning avgas to worry about this kind of stuff :)

Cheaper fuel would make me smile, don't get me wrong. Maybe it would have meant a lot more than 10 or 12 planes buzzing around. But it's not the end of the world. Seriously.
 
This issue seems to me mostly a city dwelling pilot lamentation. What's really happening is that metropolitan Private aviation is being gentrified (yai Second World style income inequality...). There are three groups. Those who dabble in ownership outside the metro markets, those who dabble within it and can afford the storage, and those who dabble within it and cannot. It is the third group that's whinning. Group 2, you can find those cats as the white knights for the affluent in the cirrus G6 thread. Me, I'm part of group 1, and thankfully have a wife who supports the living choices necessary to maintain access to airplane ownership as part of our lifestyle. Choices that will be necessary when we do move our concentric circles to a metro market in the future. That will probably mean living somewhere where access to storage and paved runways is cheap, and long commutes to work.

There's other combinations that can bridge the gap too. I know a lot of folks who do the opposite of what my household does. They live close to work and the metropolis, and commute hellishly to the airplane. I find that one a non starter for my motivation to own an airplane, but for those who don't mind it, it can offer the same storage cost reprieve living away from city centers provide.

Fuel prices are a red herring imo. This is a question of storage driving the market. Sounds irrational to the majority of pedestrians who would never consider storage of an automobile a go/no go to their car ownership. Probably NYC residents might be a more understanding demographic when it comes to the seeming market irrationality of the small item overriding the large item. Something Michael Moore once jokingly remarked in suggesting that "I wanted to go to college, but I couldn't find parking, so I quit".

Don't get me wrong, gentrification sucks for the gentrified, but unless you're willing to forcibly take from the gentrifiers, your best bet in life is finding a corner where you can live with the compromises that get you what you want the most.
 
In southwest Ohio the costliest thing is actually finding reasonably priced storage for the plane IMHO. When 5-10 hours worth of fuel money is going into the hangar for the month, that makes a dent in the flight budget. And considering lovely Midwest storms around here I don't trust a few ropes and hoping the hail misses me, it didn't miss the roof on my house.
 
This issue seems to me mostly a city dwelling pilot lamentation. What's really happening is that metropolitan Private aviation is being gentrified (yai Second World style income inequality...). There are three groups. Those who dabble in ownership outside the metro markets, those who dabble within it and can afford the storage, and those who dabble within it and cannot. It is the third group that's whinning. Group 2, you can find those cats as the white knights for the affluent in the cirrus G6 thread. Me, I'm part of group 1, and thankfully have a wife who supports the living choices necessary to maintain access to airplane ownership as part of our lifestyle. Choices that will be necessary when we do move our concentric circles to a metro market in the future. That will probably mean living somewhere where access to storage and paved runways is cheap, and long commutes to work.

There's other combinations that can bridge the gap too. I know a lot of folks who do the opposite of what my household does. They live close to work and the metropolis, and commute hellishly to the airplane. I find that one a non starter for my motivation to own an airplane, but for those who don't mind it, it can offer the same storage cost reprieve living away from city centers provide.

Fuel prices are a red herring imo. This is a question of storage driving the market. Sounds irrational to the majority of pedestrians who would never consider storage of an automobile a go/no go to their car ownership. Probably NYC residents might be a more understanding demographic when it comes to the seeming market irrationality of the small item overriding the large item. Something Michael Moore once jokingly remarked in suggesting that "I wanted to go to college, but I couldn't find parking, so I quit".

Don't get me wrong, gentrification sucks for the gentrified, but unless you're willing to forcibly take from the gentrifiers, your best bet in life is finding a corner where you can live with the compromises that get you what you want the most.

I think the part about living a lifestyle makes sense. Doesn't matter if you're in the city or in the country. Just about income vs spending. Like I mentioned above, most choose a debt driven lifestyle.

I know all sorts of city dwellers who are paying hundreds of dollars a month to store things that cost more to store AND to own than most airplanes. RVs come to mind. ATVs, Snow machines, or even paying to store crap that simply won't fit inside their house.

And our airplane storage cost dropped dramatically over the long term when we got serious and bought the hangar down the row instead of renting one from a guy who thought it was worth more every year.

As far as "gentrification" goes, you don't seem to be using the word correctly.

gen·tri·fi·ca·tion
ˌjentrəfəˈkāSH(ə)n/
noun
noun: gentrification; plural noun: gentrifications
the process of renovating and improving a house or district so that it conforms to middle-class taste.
"an area undergoing rapid gentrification"
the process of making a person or activity more refined or polite.
"soccer has undergone gentrification"

I'm not sure what part of GA you think is being renovated to conform to middle-class tastes.

Aviation has always been something the middle class has to sacrifice something to afford. And usually that's by buying something with 1950s through 1970s tastes.

You probably have to have a true middle class budget to play, with no consumer debt and without two new car payments in the driveway. With that debt, you bought something else with your time and treasure and you'll be paying for it for half a lifetime, probably.

But I don't see any gentrification going on. Airplanes have always been expensive.
 
$3.99 at our field but it was $3.35 for like a year before they went up.

Several fields around $3.50 a gallon.

But yeah, plenty of places still above $5 as well. The higher cost has little to do with demand at the production level. The airports are getting it fairly cheaply. The local airport manger here told me their book price is around $2.50-2.75 gallon (that was about 6 months ago). Any airport that's charging $5 a gallon is making several dollars a gallon off each sale.

I will point out that the OPer is the same guy who makes a new thread every few months telling us how GA is on death's door and why. So he's probably trolling as much as wanting a real discussion.
2-2.50 a gal seems to be what the local fbo's spread is, running just under $5 most weeks recently.
Sadly, knowing how badly government regulations have affected operating costs for everyone, I can't begrudge them for charging that much.

Employee costs have exploded in recent years, for very well known reasons, and complying with the Fed fueling regs for low volume operators is ridiculously expensive. Hey folks, we did this to ourselves, either willingly, or through our own inaction, so now we get to live with the consequences.
 
Hey folks, we did this to ourselves, either willingly, or through our own inaction, so now we get to live with the consequences.

Not really. Those regs and their genesis were voted on before I was alive, and the folks who need the paychecks from the agencies administering and monitoring them were well entrenched before I could do anything about it.

I've voted anti-government growth my whole life and espoused no debt to anyone who'd listen since my 20s. I'd love to know what you think I could have done to derail the silliness of the previous generation's obsession with selling debt to children and allowing their government to grow without bounds.

My county's Facebook page erupted into a discussion about all the rural broke people wanting a Rec Center this weekend.

Freaking morons. I want. I want!!! Government give!!!!

They got angry when I pointed out that they don't even pay their firefighters yet, and they fight all business and land development out here. Maybe rightly so, but you don't get freaking Rec Centers with no tax base.

It's like talking to four year olds, financially. Seriously. I'd feel like a proud papa if even one of them showed how they're going to pay for such things with even the worst impossible numbers. At least they'd have shown they know how to add and subtract.
 
I wonder if some of the members on this board really want to promote Aviation. What a person does with their financial affairs is none of my business but here in the US we ALL have a choice if you want to do something or not you are still choosing. Complaining is STILL a choice and it's a bad one. Everyone is dealt a different hand, just do the best you can with the hand that you are dealt, that is all anyone can ask of you.
 
Aviation has always been something the middle class has to sacrifice something to afford. And usually that's by buying something with 1950s through 1970s tastes.

You probably have to have a true middle class budget to play, with no consumer debt and without two new car payments in the driveway. With that debt, you bought something else with your time and treasure and you'll be paying for it for half a lifetime, probably.

But I don't see any gentrification going on. Airplanes have always been expensive.

We have no debt other than our house payment. I own a 14 year old car. What I do pay is everything everybody else does:

house payment
health/dental insurance
car insurance
phone ($100 month)
water
gas
electricity
cable TV and internet, most basic package available
daycare
groceries
dog and cat food
fuel for vehicle


With "just" these things, I can no longer afford to fly. I barely could before I added "daycare" to the list. Daycare could buy a lot of 100LL.

I can't think of what I'd give up on that list to be able to fly. Even if I can give up cable TV, and get internet only, I would save about $70 a month (about 1/2 hour of flight). We already own the pets, can't just kick them to the curb.

For me, it's not about carrying debt, other than the house payment. I reckon that could free up some spending money. It's more about having disposable income, how ever you juggle your life to make that happen.
 
What's killing aviation.... the $30.00 Continental rubber intake coupler I just bought!!!
 
We have no debt other than our house payment. I own a 14 year old car. What I do pay is everything everybody else does:

house payment
health/dental insurance
car insurance
phone ($100 month)
water
gas
electricity
cable TV and internet, most basic package available
daycare
groceries
dog and cat food
fuel for vehicle


With "just" these things, I can no longer afford to fly. I barely could before I added "daycare" to the list. Daycare could buy a lot of 100LL.

I can't think of what I'd give up on that list to be able to fly. Even if I can give up cable TV, and get internet only, I would save about $70 a month (about 1/2 hour of flight). We already own the pets, can't just kick them to the curb.

For me, it's not about carrying debt, other than the house payment. I reckon that could free up some spending money. It's more about having disposable income, how ever you juggle your life to make that happen.
My biggest expense, by far- almost an order of magnitude over any other line item- are INCOME AND FICA TAXES.
 
The romance with aviation ended some time ago. That should have been the death knell of GA. Fortunately, there are enough of us with a passion for flying to keep it alive. Availability of affordable, older aircraft helps. But it's getting harder to find parts for some of them. I know firsthand!
 
There is one kind of debt that can actually help you. That is mortgage debt. It is the least expensive way to borrow money. If you invest that amount in the stock market, you can almost assuredly make more than the interest on the mortgage debt. And, the interest is tax deductible, so the interest rate is actually less than the actual rate. It is a form of leverage. This is how banks make money. And they are conservative. They borrow at a low rate, and lend it at a higher rate.
 
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We have no debt other than our house payment. I own a 14 year old car. What I do pay is everything everybody else does:

house payment
health/dental insurance
car insurance
phone ($100 month)
water
gas
electricity
cable TV and internet, most basic package available
daycare
groceries
dog and cat food
fuel for vehicle


With "just" these things, I can no longer afford to fly. I barely could before I added "daycare" to the list. Daycare could buy a lot of 100LL.

I can't think of what I'd give up on that list to be able to fly. Even if I can give up cable TV, and get internet only, I would save about $70 a month (about 1/2 hour of flight). We already own the pets, can't just kick them to the curb.

For me, it's not about carrying debt, other than the house payment. I reckon that could free up some spending money. It's more about having disposable income, how ever you juggle your life to make that happen.

Not picking, just asking...

Is the house payment higher than 25% of take-home pay? If so, too much house.

I ask because we did that to ourselves, and it's a fiscal mistake. We also convinced ourselves that "debt free besides the house" sounded good, and bought into our own self-marketing on that for a while. But we had too much house.

Two ways out of that. Higher income or trade down in house. Or be stupid like we did for a long time and just be stuck.

You don't have a debt problem, you have a cash flow problem. It can't be fixed without raising more cash (second job) or lowering expenses.

It's a really common trap for small business owners, too. No wiggle room.

Zero-basing the budget will highlight the problem and for some, gives them the motivation to change one side or the other of the balance sheet. I recommend YNAB.com.

If it helps, great. If not, disregard.

That problem can be fixed, though. The hard part is, if the house has no equity, it's a couple of years of living like broke people, and I mean so broke you really are considering putting the dog and cat on eBay, and probably a second job. Or pushing for promotions and raises real hard.

Don't be too attached to the house. People do that, and get stuck right at the edge of their means for decades. Might as well fix the mistake soon, rather than wait.
 
There is one kind of debt that can actually help you. That is mortgage debt. It is the least expensive way to borrow money. If you invest that amount in the stock market, you can almost assuredly make more than the interest on the mortgage debt. And, the interest is tax deductible, so the interest rate is actually less than the actual rate. It is a form of leverage. This is how banks make money. And they are conservative. They borrow at a low rate, and lend it at a higher rate.

As mentioned, that all depends on how much of it you have. An oversized mortgage and house can harm you just as easily as any other sort of debt, even if you're paying it.

A 30 year, no money down, at 45% of take-home can be a trap. A very long term trap. And a big risk.

A 15 year, 20% down, 25% of take-home, is a useful tool and trades very little risk for a big reward.
 
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