100LL Debacle

OneCharlieTango said:
George is the one person who knows the most about this topic, and he says Baker and AOPA are doing good, supportive work. That’s enough to convince me.
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George can’t risk biting the hand that needs to feed him, considering Baker is co-chair of EAGLE. I don’t owe Baker a blessed thing and I would bite his hand off at the neck if I had the opportunity.

But just wait - if GAMI does somehow get their STC, Baker and the AOPA will be first in line to take credit.
 
Oh, yeah. George has been the very picture of decorum and political sensitivity for the past decade!

The idea that he’s propping AOPA because he “needs” them doesn’t stand up against the way he’s been talking about the FAA, who he really does need.
 
Clip4 said:
Getting insurance for grounded aircraft will be rather inexpensive.
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I don’t know about that. If the airplanes responsible for 2/3 of avgas sales are grounded by lack of avgas, hangars might become strangely flammable.
 
OneCharlieTango said:
I don’t know about that. If the airplanes responsible for 2/3 of avgas sales are grounded by lack of avgas, hangars might become strangely flammable.
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He kinda makes this point in the video. AVGAS is a money maker for oil companies even in smaller batches. The argument has happened many times over the past 20 years. Do we ultimately need it, sure. But the FAA isn't going to sign off on liability unless it seems full-proof and to someone else's point AOPA isn't really helping to solve the problem let alone the 5 others in GA
 
Dave Anderson said:
But the FAA isn't going to sign off on liability unless it seems full-proof...
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The FAA already signed off on one approval for G100LL last year, it just wasn't fleet wide. They weren't too worried about how foolproof it was then. The difference is that now we have EAGLE with millions in pork.
 
Half Fast said:
But the EPA isn't the gatekeeper for an avgas solution, the FAA is. Even if the EPA is the problem, the solution lies in FAA territory.
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You might consider that the current administration, Congress, and the EPA won't be too concerned about a solution considering they claim there is supposedly no safe level of lead exposure for children.

I'm not sure how generations of kids managed to survive lead pipes, lead paint, and leaded gas without horrendous and calamitous death rates, but there it is.
 
WDD said:
FIFY. :).


If the FAA wanted to make this go away,
1- buy the formula from the nice people who made it - give them a fraction of what it would cost to run the eagle program. Or pay a royalty until the patent expires.
2 - Authorize it’s use, make the formula public domain
3 - De authorize adding lead in fuel in 2 years.
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I think this might really work. I'd propose something *slightly* different.

1. Congress forces FAA to authorize use of formula.
2. FAA offers to authorize anyone else's formula, providing whatever company comes up with it pays for testing, and the testing is comparable to formula.
3. FAA writes official note to EPA stating that fuel problem can be solved by industry in 2 years.

That would give the fuel people 2 years to figure out if they want to license, buy these guys out, or come up with their own plan. I bet they'd pick option "2", because it's faster and safer, and most corporate people think short term and low risk. I don't think the FAA is going to do anything on their own, without pressure from above. They're too risk adverse, and they're too closely involved with the people they're supposed to regulate. Just my 2 cents.
 
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Racerx said:
My issue with AOPA and 100LL was them not supporting GAMI or Swift, but being part of the presser on support of EAGLE...after every entity in PAFI left the program.
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Racerx said:
You mean like the AOPA and EAA and how both back EAGLE.
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Can you explain then why both GAMI and Swift Fuels chose to join EAGLE? Perhaps for the same reasons that AOPA joined? In fact, at Oshkosh, both Swift Fuels and GAMI thanked AOPA for their support and assistance in moving their fuels programs forward.

I don’t have the full story of all that goes on at the “high” level, but this truly seems to have a malodorous scent.
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I concur...

The good news is that both the FAA's AIR1 and AIR700 were replaced, and the new job holders seem VERY serious about clearing this up. In addition, AIR600, Policy and Innovation (responsible for EAGLE) were interfering... and that guy no longer works for the FAA.

GAMI's George Braly met with Lirio Liu, the new AIR1, head of aircraft certification, before Airventure opened Monday July 26 in Oshkosh. She agreed to send an FAA team to Ada, OK to meet with GAMI's folks to work through the objections raised by the FAA's 8th review of the GAMI fuel project, the so-called Technical Advisory Board (TAB) for whom I served as as fuels consultant. There were questions about fuels, but there were many other questions as well in the TAB.

That three-day meeting occurred this past Wednesday, Thursday, Friday in Ada, and I was AOPA's observer, with the consent of both the FAA and GAMI, and was able to assist by addressing some specific refinery-process, fuel-blending issues that arose. There's a two-week timeline for AIR700 to get back to GAMI with either go-forward, or specific questions. And the AIR700 incumbent, Mel Johnson, further committed to two-week or less turnaround to any GAMI response, should there be specific questions.

AIR700 is Compliance and Airworthiness Division (AIR-700). The Compliance and Airworthiness Division issues all design approvals for both domestic and foreign manufacturers as well as production and airworthiness certificates, executes Continual Operational Safety processes, and provides flight test support.

Anyway, George Braly credits AOPA with being instrumental in making this come-together meeting happen... and we certainly intend to hold Mel Johnson to his promise to get back in two weeks or less. Fingers crossed for a rapid resolution of these outstanding questions.

Paul
 
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Half Fast said:
if Baker really gave a rip about making sure GA continues to have fuel he’d be raising Cain to get the STC signed.
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In political circles, the most effective Cain-raising isn't always done in public.

Paul
 
Half Fast said:
Or businesses are lobbying the FAA not to approve a solution that will require them to pay licensing fees.
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I'm not aware than any of the companies working on unleaded avgas plan to *donate* their intellectual property... so someone will be paying licensing fees to someone, and those ultimately come out of the pocket of the avgas purchaser. I think most businesses are sophisticated enough to recognize that market reality.
 
3393RP said:
I'm not sure how generations of kids managed to survive lead pipes, lead paint, and leaded gas without horrendous and calamitous death rates
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You misunderstand the concern. Tetraethyllead isn't fatal unless you are exposed to the undiluted additive, typically in the manufacturing plant or in the refinery where it's being blended. A number of folks died before we figured that out.

The impact on children is stunting of intellectual development... that's manifested by difficulties learning, lower IQ by five points or so depending on exposure, poor impulse control and propensity for violence, and potentially greater chance of cancer later in life. That's probably why you and I are where we are today... survivor phenomenon!

Paul
 
PaulMillner said:
The impact on children is stunting of intellectual development... that's manifested by difficulties learning, lower IQ by five points or so depending on exposure, poor impulse control and propensity for violence,
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So we’ve been electing people who had excessive lead exposure as children?
;)
 
PaulMillner said:
Can you explain then why both GAMI and Swift Fuels chose to join EAGLE? Perhaps for the same reasons that AOPA joined? In fact, at Oshkosh, both Swift Fuels and GAMI thanked AOPA for their support and assistance in moving their fuels programs forward.



I concur...

The good news is that both the FAA's AIR1 and AIR700 were replaced, and the new job holders seem VERY serious about clearing this up. In addition, AIR600, Policy and Innovation (responsible for EAGLE) were interfering... and that guy no longer works for the FAA.

GAMI's George Braly met with Lirio Liu, the new AIR1, head of aircraft certification, before Airventure opened Monday July 26 in Oshkosh. She agreed to send an FAA team to Ada, OK to meet with GAMI's folks to work through the objections raised by the FAA's 8th review of the GAMI fuel project, the so-called Technical Advisory Board (TAB) for whom I served as as fuels consultant. There were questions about fuels, but there were many other questions as well in the TAB.

That three-day meeting occurred this past Wednesday, Thursday, Friday in Ada, and I was AOPA's observer, with the consent of both the FAA and GAMI, and was able to assist by addressing some specific refinery-process, fuel blending issues that arose. There's a two-week timeline for AIR700 to get back to GAMI with either go-forward, or specific questions. And the AIR700 incumbent, Mel Johnson, further committed to two-week or less turnaround to any GAMI response, should there be specific questions.

AIR700 is Compliance and Airworthiness Division (AIR-700). The Compliance and Airworthiness Division issues all design approvals for both domestic and foreign manufacturers as well as production and airworthiness certificates, executes Continual Operational Safety processes, and provides flight test support.

Anyway, George Braly credits AOPA with being instrumental in making this come-together meeting happen... and we certainly intend to hold Mel Johnson to his promise to get back in two weeks or less. Fingers crossed for a rapid resolution of these outstanding questions.
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I’ve read Braly’s account of that meeting. Apparently the FAA had committed that they would bring data and they failed to do so, showing once again their lack of commitment to keeping their commitments.

I strongly suspect that in two weeks GAMI will receive more questions that have already been answered, hear about more FAA hand-wringing, and the can will continue rattling down the road....
 
PaulMillner said:
You misunderstand the concern. Tetraethyllead isn't fatal unless you are exposed to the undiluted additive, typically in the manufacturing plant or in the refinery where it's being blended. A number of folks died before we figured that out.

The impact on children is stunting of intellectual development... that's manifested by difficulties learning, lower IQ by five points or so depending on exposure, poor impulse control and propensity for violence, and potentially greater chance of cancer later in life. That's probably why you and I are where we are today... survivor phenomenon!

Paul
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I, for one, really appreciate your sharing of your knowledge and experience on this subject.
 
Half Fast said:
Not if a fuel company is producing their own formula.
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There are 8 avgas producing sites in North America. There are 5 companies working on unleaded avgas, but only *one* of those is also a producer, who accounts for two of those eight sites.

So, unless you believe the six others will exit the market, *and* the one inventor/producer will succeed... someone will be paying license fees to someone. I'll bet good money on that!

Paul
 
PaulMillner said:
You misunderstand the concern. Tetraethyllead isn't fatal unless you are exposed to the undiluted additive, typically in the manufacturing plant or in the refinery where it's being blended. A number of folks died before we figured that out.

The impact on children is stunting of intellectual development... that's manifested by difficulties learning, lower IQ by five points or so depending on exposure, poor impulse control and propensity for violence, and potentially greater chance of cancer later in life. That's probably why you and I are where we are today... survivor phenomenon!

Paul
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The government has done its fair share by getting involved in education. That is a debate for another day.
 
Half Fast said:
But the EPA isn't the gatekeeper for an avgas solution, the FAA is. Even if the EPA is the problem, the solution lies in FAA territory.
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Not really....the EPA owns the emissions rules and delegates much to the FAA.

Congriss critters can fix all this.....and make things happen. Recall that Congress is the oversight body.
 
Half Fast said:
The FAA already signed off on one approval for G100LL last year, it just wasn't fleet wide. They weren't too worried about how foolproof it was then. The difference is that now we have EAGLE with millions in pork.
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Meh....it's more about the deck chairs at the executive level at the FAA been moved around. New players need to now "understand". That may take some time....:confused::eek:

Recall there is an approval...STC....just no AML.
 
I'm tired of AOPA and how they are handling 100LL replacement and how they are handling a range of other issues like airport closures is anemic.

My membership expired last month without renewal. However I did renew my EAA membership.
 
NordicDave said:
I'm tired of AOPA and how they are handling 100LL replacement and how they are handling a range of other issues like airport closures is anemic.

My membership expired last month without renewal. However I did renew my EAA membership.
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So, instead of “anemic” handling of those issues, you’ve decided not to handle them at all. A couple of questions:
What are you doing with $89 a year that supports GA better than AOPA?

What would a non-anemic AOPA be doing differently with respect to AVGAS and airport closures?

Why did you renew EAA?
 
I suspect the synthesis of tetraethyl lead is quite simple, given that they made it in 1902 or whatever. If the British stop making it someone here can start. They will too, if there's money to be made.
 
steingar said:
I suspect the synthesis of tetraethyl lead is quite simple, given that they made it in 1902 or whatever. If the British stop making it someone here can start. They will too, if there's money to be made.
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Good luck getting the epa to allow that. Like so many things, China would be where it comes from
 
OneCharlieTango said:
So, instead of “anemic” handling of those issues, you’ve decided not to handle them at all. A couple of questions:
What are you doing with $89 a year that supports GA better than AOPA?

What would a non-anemic AOPA be doing differently with respect to AVGAS and airport closures?

Why did you renew EAA?
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EAA appears more directly active with supporting the GA community, and I'm sticking with them as a member. AOPA leadership goes through cycles over the years empathizing with regulators over GA pilots and back again when membership drops.

I give MORE money than this to https://www.savereidhillview.org plus donating time this group for campaigning.

Why don't you join us to save KRHV? We are actively fighting at the tip of the lance for the 100LL battle and an airport closure. The front lines of the battle are formed here in San Jose California.

We are engaged constantly with local and national politicians and administrators. EVERY public meeting, committee hearing, campaign rally, etc. AOPA is no where to be found except for a couple of letters and platitudes.
 
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OneCharlieTango said:
So, instead of “anemic” handling of those issues, you’ve decided not to handle them at all. A couple of questions:
What are you doing with $89 a year that supports GA better than AOPA?

What would a non-anemic AOPA be doing differently with respect to AVGAS and airport closures?

Why did you renew EAA?
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Hard to tell that AOPA is doing much of anything for that $89 outside of buying aerobatic airplanes for their executive staff. Stuffing the coffers full of cash that never seems to get used aside from paying for the top level staff to jet-set around the country. They are far more concerned with the turbine crowd. I fully expect the wine club to get re-started, lol. Tough to really put AOPA's fingerprint on anything because they have the largest aviation lobbying group, that went all-in on ADS-B mandates other non-GA friendly initiatives. I don't think they have the pull that most people think they do.
 
Burning the $89 would be just about as effective as AOPA ....
 
steingar said:
I suspect the synthesis of tetraethyl lead is quite simple, given that they made it in 1902 or whatever. If the British stop making it someone here can start. They will too, if there's money to be made.
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Given the toxicity and risks, I highly doubt anyone here will start producing TEL.

The future liability from environmental and/or health lawsuits will far outweigh any profitability from manufacturing small quantities of this additive.

BTW, the EU is now banning TEL imports from the UK beginning in 2025.

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2022/586/oj

I do agree with others that we are just one manufacturing plant spill, fire, bankruptcy, merger, or politicians pen (here or UK) from having no more 100LL.

And the general public everywhere will have zero sympathy for the "elite airplane owners who can no longer fly their dangerous toys."
 
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