1.25% chance of dying before 1500 hours?

1.25% chance of dying before 1500 hours..????

I beat the odds..!!!!!!!




Do the odds go up or down after the 1500 hours..??
 
I’m pretty sure the death rate for pilots is the same as for motorcyclists, racing drivers, and mountain climbers.

One death per person, sooner or later.
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
Yup if I die in a plane; Know All Men By These Presents...it's something I accept could happen and willingly accept the risk for the joy.
No one is permitted to bemoan or hand-wring (except what I did to the craft).
Likewise, I'll smack anyone who says "He died doing what he loved"!
Click to expand...
I have no intention of dying in my airplane. Preferably of very old age in bed.
 
Clark1961 said:
Also consider that 100% of aircraft will return to the Earth's surface. Combined those are some scary statistics.
Click to expand...

Some ballistic aircraft haven’t yet returned. AirPLANES however have mostly come back down. :)

Ryanb said:
That statistic must have left out the vegans.
Click to expand...

2b438da997ab2674526ea448d0f83946.jpg


Let'sgoflying! said:
Likewise, I'll smack anyone who says "He died doing what he loved"!
Click to expand...

Amen. If I was crashing that really isn’t the part I loved. LOL.
 
Aren’t they just saying newer pilots are more likely to have an accident? Seems logical to me?
 
denverpilot said:
Some ballistic aircraft haven’t yet returned. AirPLANES however have mostly come back down. :)



2b438da997ab2674526ea448d0f83946.jpg




Amen. If I was crashing that really isn’t the part I loved. LOL.
Click to expand...
All aircraft have returned to the surface. Some spacecraft have not returned.
 
I remember reading that the odds increase and peak around 500hrs and then begin to decline until reaching 1000 hrs and then begin to rise again, peaking at 1500 hrs... seeing a trend there, I think...
 
FlySince9 said:
I remember reading that the odds increase and peak around 500hrs and then begin to decline until reaching 1000 hrs and then begin to rise again, peaking at 1500 hrs... seeing a trend there, I think...
Click to expand...

Must be vfr pilots, x hours + 500.....
 
Zeldman said:
1.25% chance of dying before 1500 hours..????

I beat the odds..!!!!!!!




Do the odds go up or down after the 1500 hours..??
Click to expand...

Depends.

Did you learn from those 1500 hours?

Did you just luck out during those 1500 hours?

Hours .... shmours...
 
FlySince9 said:
I remember reading that the odds increase and peak around 500hrs and then begin to decline until reaching 1000 hrs and then begin to rise again, peaking at 1500 hrs... seeing a trend there, I think...
Click to expand...

I recollect, back in the days when airplanes were all wood, muslin and baling wire, the death rate for pilots took a sharp jump at about 200 hours, that's where the confidence and stupidity curves intersected. Over the years that intersection has progressive increased up the "hours" axis.
Now I hate to say this, and it is causing me much pain and anguish to do so, I think some, some, not all, of the improvement can be credited to FAA programs and changes in how we "do business".
What I can't figure out is whether it actually improved the skill set, or just scared pilots so badly that it takes many more hours before the confidence curve intersects the stupidity curve.
 
tawood said:
Forget the odds in 1500 hours...I want to know the survivability odds for 1500 mile student pilot solo cross-countries!
Click to expand...

No such thing as a 1500 mile student pilot cross country. All cross country flights in small ga planes are from pit stop to pit stop. ;)

That's why, at my age, running out of gas is never a problem.
 
James331 said:
No one makes it out of life alive, biggest risk people take is not taking risks.

Frankly I find having a bad diet, or poor breeding much more of a risk than flying a plane.
Click to expand...

Yep,

Stroke, Cancer and Heart Attacks will get you faster!
 
I’m actually surprised it’s not much higher than that.
 
SkyDog58 said:
I read somewhere that 100% of people will die at the end of their lifetime.
Click to expand...

I don't believe that. I'm running my own experiment now. I'll let you know what I find out.
 
Last edited:
What never gets factored into the statistical models is what type of risk manager you are. I know motorcycle riders that ride safely and responsibly, always wear a helmet, obey all traffic laws. I also know motorcycle riders that go helmetless, weave in and out of traffic and lane changes without advance signalling, etc. What are the chances of being killed in a motorcycle accident? The overall number isn't necessarily the same number for each of these two types. Same goes for pilots. I know some pilots that are meticulous in following the checklist, do a thorough pre-flight before each flight, check and double check fuel quantity, plan for over required fuel reserves, etc. I also know some pilots who simply tool out to the airport and jump in the plane and takeoff because they just flew the plane yesterday and everything was fine. Again the statistical probability might show the same for those two pilots, but the actual probability of a fatal accident is probably much higher for the second.
 
SkyDog58 said:
Depends.

Did you learn from those 1500 hours?

Did you just luck out during those 1500 hours?

Hours .... shmours...
Click to expand...

I hit 1500 hours 20 years ago in Alaska. I don't remember if it was my superior bush pilot skills or just beginners luck.

I don't remember what I am having for breakfast right now..... Who are you people..????? :confused: :lol::lol:
 
The thing about airplanes is there are failure modes where your ticket is punched and the grim reaper rules the day. But from the statistics these are the minority. I think the most frequent cause of airplane accidents is still IMC, followed by "hold my beer and watch this" sorts of behavior. Running out of gas is still up there. So, if you don't fly your aircraft into bad wx and don't run out of gas, your odds of dying have just gotten that much lower. Be proactive on your aircraft's maintenance and your chances decrease even more.

It is still possible for the mill to quit over hostile terrain, and at that point it may be just as much luck as skill.
 
Zeldman said:
I hit 1500 hours 20 years ago in Alaska. I don't remember if it was my superior bush pilot skills or just beginners luck.

I don't remember what I am having for breakfast right now..... Who are you people..????? :confused: :lol::lol:
Click to expand...

Who are we? Who am I? I was hoping you could tell me.
 
All joking asided, I'm wondering what the odds are of engine failure in single engine light aircraft, over the course of 1500 hours. I have approximately 500 hours logged, but I've had 1 engine failure....
 
tawood said:
All joking asided, I'm wondering what the odds are of engine failure in single engine light aircraft, over the course of 1500 hours. I have approximately 500 hours logged, but I've had 1 engine failure....
Click to expand...

Probably pretty highhhhh
 
denverpilot said:
They were aircraft before they were spacecraft. Otherwise nobody in the engineering department would care about Max Q. :)
Click to expand...
You have a unique definition of aircraft.
 
tawood said:
All joking asided, I'm wondering what the odds are of engine failure in single engine light aircraft, over the course of 1500 hours. I have approximately 500 hours logged, but I've had 1 engine failure....
Click to expand...
My CFI did a calculation from some statistics somewhere and showed me... he came to to conclusion of 1 engine failure in 10k hrs. he has flown about 9.4k and the only time he was a little shaken was when the landing gear of a King air wont come up after take off, he flew all 600 miles with the landing gear down. another CFI has about 4k hrs, the only time he was a little shaken up was when Denver approach asked him to go lower and he picked up some ice in the process.
 
steingar said:
The thing about airplanes is there are failure modes where your ticket is punched and the grim reaper rules the day.
Click to expand...
"The thing about airplanes"? Try "the thing about life". Like the time a driver didn't want to wait for a red light and decided to jump the curb and use the sidewalk I was walking on.
 
tawood said:
All joking asided, I'm wondering what the odds are of engine failure in single engine light aircraft, over the course of 1500 hours. I have approximately 500 hours logged, but I've had 1 engine failure....
Click to expand...

I thought I had set a record with 5 engine failures in 7 flights. (All in the same Remos GX)
Then I had 5 engine failures in 7 landings in one 1.5 hour flight. (All in the same J3-Cub)
tawood, I hope you haven't jinxed yourself.
 
Clark1961 said:
You have a unique definition of aircraft.
Click to expand...

It’s generally considered bad form to rip the wings off of the orbiter during the ascent stage or all the fairings off of the rocket before the payload makes it to orbit.

Technically most of the rocket is an aircraft. A ballistic aircraft, but it only operates in air nonetheless. First stage drops away before it’s outside the atmosphere on most. :)

And those SpaceX folks, they’re operating them in air on the way back to the pad. :)

Really the payloads are the only thing truly designed to only be a “spacecraft”. The booster systems spend most of their time operating as an aircraft, if you really think about it. :) Upper stages less than lower.
 
Shepherd said:
I thought I had set a record with 5 engine failures in 7 flights. (All in the same Remos GX)
Then I had 5 engine failures in 7 landings in one 1.5 hour flight. (All in the same J3-Cub)
tawood, I hope you haven't jinxed yourself.
Click to expand...
Well I hope so too! You mention J3 engine failure...with an A65? (That's what my one-and-only-one failure was with, except behind the A65 was a Taylorcraft)
 
denverpilot said:
It’s generally considered bad form to rip the wings off of the orbiter during the ascent stage or all the fairings off of the rocket before the payload makes it to orbit.

Technically most of the rocket is an aircraft. A ballistic aircraft, but it only operates in air nonetheless. First stage drops away before it’s outside the atmosphere on most. :)

And those SpaceX folks, they’re operating them in air on the way back to the pad. :)

Really the payloads are the only thing truly designed to only be a “spacecraft”. The booster systems spend most of their time operating as an aircraft, if you really think about it. :) Upper stages less than lower.
Click to expand...
LOL. Yer funny. A bullet operates in air but it is not an aircraft. A rocket moves through the atmosphere as fast as possible so that it can operate in near vacuum conditions. A rocket generates no aerodynamic lift. Should I go on or do you wish to press your hopeless position?
 
Clark1961 said:
LOL. Yer funny. A bullet operates in air but it is not an aircraft. A rocket moves through the atmosphere as fast as possible so that it can operate in near vacuum conditions. A rocket generates no aerodynamic lift. Should I go on or do you wish to press your hopeless position?
Click to expand...

Is a hot air ballon an aircraft? :) (See FAR 1.)
 
asicer said:
"The thing about airplanes"? Try "the thing about life". Like the time a driver didn't want to wait for a red light and decided to jump the curb and use the sidewalk I was walking on.
Click to expand...
It is true that lots of things can kill you, and most of them are utterly mundane. I guess my thinking is that if you use good judgement and risk assessment you can avoid a lot of the situations that do the greatest amount of pilot assassination. Then its up to things like loosing your engine over hostile terrain, sudden medical incapacitation or some other unforeseen unavoidable and catastrophic situation. If something like that does come up your number is punched and there isn't a lot you can do about it. Yes, that can be true in any fast moving vehicle, but most vehicles do not need the degree of skill aircraft do to return them to a stationary position.
 
Running with scissors? A 2.7% chance of dying right thar. :)

And a 4.8% chance of poking your eye out.
 
WannFly said:
My CFI did a calculation from some statistics somewhere and showed me... he came to to conclusion of 1 engine failure in 10k hrs. he has flown about 9.4k and the only time he was a little shaken was when the landing gear of a King air wont come up after take off, he flew all 600 miles with the landing gear down. another CFI has about 4k hrs, the only time he was a little shaken up was when Denver approach asked him to go lower and he picked up some ice in the process.
Click to expand...

I wonder if that stats guy on here has any stats on that. Forgot his name.

My CFI has had an eventful flying career lol. Had a propeller on his Cherokee 180 in the mid 70s come from together and he crash landed in the desert. Another time had an engne failure in an SR20 (thankfully it was almost right after leaving the runway). He was instructing in an old Mooney at one point that had an engine failure - barely made it to a runway, but "crash" landed (this might not be totally accurate - I can't remember the whole story) - broke his pelvis or something.

He has all sorts of stories...I take it if you instruct for long enough your bound to be involved in some incidents/accidents.
 
steingar said:
The thing about airplanes is there are failure modes where your ticket is punched and the grim reaper rules the day. But from the statistics these are the minority. I think the most frequent cause of airplane accidents is still IMC, followed by "hold my beer and watch this" sorts of behavior. Running out of gas is still up there. So, if you don't fly your aircraft into bad wx and don't run out of gas, your odds of dying have just gotten that much lower. Be proactive on your aircraft's maintenance and your chances decrease even more.

It is still possible for the mill to quit over hostile terrain, and at that point it may be just as much luck as skill.
Click to expand...

The thing about weather accidents is that it's not always obvious when things are good and when they aren't. Where I'm sitting today, it's a glorious day for flying, blue skies and light winds. By the time midsummer rolls around, we'll have lots of days where it's hazy with a 30 percent of thunderstorms. Today, it's a no brainer, go out and fly. But, what do you do in the summer? You could take off, things might be just fine, and you may just stumble into one of those thunderstorms because you can't really see it, especially if you are headed into the sun. I got caught in a microburst two minutes walk from my house, because it blew up out of nowhere. i checked the local weather before I headed out, put the collar on the dog, and not five minutes later the rain was blowing sideways and visibility was about five feet.

Unless you're very willing to limit when you fly to only those days like today, you stand a chance of having the weather do you in. For the kind of aircraft we fly, bad weather is a hazard that isn't completely under our control.
 
Clark1961 said:
And the hot air balloon generates lift which depends entirely on air.
Click to expand...

Doesn’t matter. Definition of Aircraft in FAR 1. It says nothing about aerodynamic or other lift.

For fun, look up the airworthiness certificate of N328KF. It’s a glider. Of course it was suborbital so that makes sense. But most folks would say it was a “spacecraft”. 367,442 feet.

I haven’t looked up N202VG but it’ll be interesting to see how they’ll comply with the certification regs for carrying passengers. Which they probably won’t, since the entire thing appears to have died 14 years later.

Burt isn’t too happy about that either. LOL.

http://spacenews.com/what-the-hell-happened-the-rise-and-fall-of-suborbital-space-tourism-companies/

Wonder what the AIRworthiness certificate will say on Blue Origin’s toys.
 
Velocity173 said:
1.25%? I’ll take those odds. In my job, I’ve got a 37% chance of dying in a fatal crash for a 20 year career. That’s why I plan on retiring after 19 years so I don’t have to worry about it. ;)
Click to expand...
And most accidents happen within five miles of home. So you'd better move.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top