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Dan, If the environmental lapse rate approaches the dry adiabatic lapse rate (3°/1000 ft), the air is indeed unstable. However, to get deep, moist convection, three things are usually needed. (1) Instability (2) Moisture (3) Some kind of outside energy contribution (or anything that creates...

Dan, The tropopause comes in three flavors, thermal tropopause, dynamical tropopause and if you want to get really picky, there's also the chemical tropopause (stability-based, dynamics-based and composition-based). For now, let's focus on the former since that's the emphasis of the OP's...

First of all, are you referring to the dry or moist adiabatic lapse rate? The dry adiabatic lapse rate is a constant. It does not change. The moist adiabatic lapse rate varies with temperature. The largest environmental lapse rate that can exist in nature is the dry adiabatic lapse rate (this...

Yes, it appears the tool is no longer available to the public and doesn't appear to be returning anytime soon. I have reached the proverbial dead end. I have known the original developer of this tool for over 20 years and he's not happy. What they don't understand is that the experimental ADDS...

Milton now has a central pressure of 897 mb or 26.49"! Just 24 hours prior the central pressure was 981 mb. That's 84 mb drop in just 24 hours.

Milton has increased to 180 mph as of the 4pm update which is a strong category 5 hurricane. Right now it is in a low shear environment over some very warm waters which has allowed it to quickly intensify. Fortunately, it is expected to gradually get into strong shear and dry air is expected to...

The way to look at this is the following... The TAF starts out with prevailing conditions which is the first line in the TAF right after the valid period (e.g., 3000/3034). If the weather is expected to change over the 24 or 30 hour valid period, you will see other forecast groups following the...

Just to note the BECMG was dropped more than two decades ago from appearing in TAFs issued by the NWS...it will appear in international and military TAFs.

I am glad to see you aren't discouraging learning how to use the Skew-T. When someone sends me an email asking for me to help them increase their weather knowledge so they can make better operational decisions and feel more confident, I often ask them if they want to learn how to use the...

There's a 6.4 million dollar grant by NOAA described here... https://journals.shareok.org/soonermagazine/article/download/12449/12448 There is also more at... https://www.ou.edu/research-norman/news-events/2023/ou-deploys-the-world-s-most-advanced-weather-radar It seems like faster would be...

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I am excited to tell you that I recently released the soft cover version of The Skew-T log (p) and Me: A Primer for Pilots. A thermodynamic chart such as the Skew-T log (p) diagram is the best kept secret in aviation. This primer is the most comprehensive resource available for general aviation...

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