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Would be interesting to see the 2020 GHS index, when it comes out. I suspect they will have to reassess our preparedness in light of what has happened over the last month and a half or so...

The point is: we were not prepared to deal with ANY truly global pandemic of a lethal illness. And: South Korea never dealt with this particular virus before either (as you said, it is a new virus), and yet they were able to stem their outbreak without shutting down the country. By their...

I was not referring to pandemics in general, but pandemics with comparable case fatality rates.

I saw today on NECN that the recreational pot shops in MA are being ordered closed. (Medical marijuana dispensaries are allowed to stay open.)

Love auto-correct! Of course, you wrote "coop"!

Not sure about the suicides, but a huge amount of hardship. So we have a true Sophie's choice. But this is where we're at because of complacency and incompetence.

Just like with coronavirus, it is hard to say how many influenza cases go undiagnosed. The only reason I was diagnosed with Type A last month is because I sought medical advice to determine if I should self-isolate. My case was fairly mild, probably thanks in part to getting a flu shot last...

Yep, very true. But again, that we didn't learn from their experience is symptomatic of the blinders we've had on about the possibility. That a pandemic might result from a new zoonotic virus like SARS (also a coronavirus) is NOT news... it is something that the medical community (and some...

Yep, I've heard about that project, if not in so much detail; thanks for the link. Yes it is clear that manufacturers can't keep up with the demand, but I'm not sure of the reason why. Note that the need for tons more ventilators depends on how many critical cases develop, which in turn depends...

I know... that's why I said it is to our lasting shame. :( Good point about ventilators, very true. Of course, the fact of needing so many is directly related to our inability to nip this thing in the bud. I'm not sure of the reason why we can't produce them - do you have a reference for that?

Update: both the garage and the dealership confirmed that there is no way to bypass the compressor... no belt listed in the catalog that is compatible with my engine, and no way to fit a substitute belt that would be long-term stable. I have a call in to a local towing outfit and an appointment...

The operative word there is "choose". Sure, they can choose to and be advised to make that choice. But in a public health emergency you need to be able to ORDER people to comply, and you can't force only those 60 and older to shelter in place. So it wouldn't work. And besides, sheltering in...

While this is true, absolute numbers of deaths are a misleading indicator. The number of people diagnosed with the flu are way, way above the number diagnosed with coronavirus. The fraction of cases that turn out fatal is much lower with the flu, less than 0.1% vs. 2-3% for the new virus. If as...

Sounds like a decent plan, Nate. Hope it goes well; you and Karen will be in my thoughts.

Exactly.

Not under quarantine (yet), but I'm working from home. Online classes began officially today. I'm currently helping my astronomy students prepare for an exam on Wednesday. The challenge is going to be physics lab, since obviously they can't actually do an experiment. But they can do data...

It gets you a larger fraction of the infected population than we are getting now. It's not perfect, no. But it was effective enough that South Korea was able to blunt the impact of their outbreak to the point where they never needed to shut the country down (as least, that is what was reported).

I'm not sure how unusual that is though. Even the flu can be transmitted by someone still in the incubation period, I believe. They just become more infectious when they are exuding virions in their cough droplets. What is unusual about this one, I think, is that it is dangerous enough that we...

Yeah, that was my interpretation too...

Ah ok, thanks. That one I would never have guessed! :D