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Except that unless EVERYONE did it worldwide, or a strict ban on international travel was kept in place after isolation was lifted, the virus would come back sooner or later... probably sooner. The measures work, but since this pandemic is global, they're not going to have a permanent effect...

Very interesting read, thanks. I thought this part was especially ominous: This was under the assumption of no seasonal forcing, which seems to be the most reasonable assumption based on the way the virus has been spreading so far in warmer climates. 20 weeks - that's 5 months - is apparently...

There is sub-$2 gas in Vermont, most of it in the Champlain Valley well south of Burlington - places like Middlebury and Rutland are seeing prices as low as $1.59. In central VT, the lowest you are likely to see is $2.09 - that's what it is in my town as of now.

As far as I know, countries that are restarting their economies are doing so because they believe they have contained the epidemic within their borders (China), or because they have the capability to identify and isolate people who have contracted the virus (South Korea). I don't know of any...

Good for you. As I said, I can't buy even commercial dust masks here now. And what I wrote about the makeshift kind, I have no doubt is true unless they're made by someone who really knows what they're doing.

My point is, it works both ways: by not adequately addressing the public health side, you risk doing serious damage to the economy as well.

Fauci is a physician, so of course he is going to look at the problem from a public health standpoint, not an economic one. But as I wrote somewhere else, if your reaction is not adequate, and you return to business as usual too soon, then the virus resurges and may well take down a significant...

He's said that a number of times I think, in slightly different versions. The version I heard was: if people think we overreacted, then that might mean we did it just right. Overreacting is the right response to this, a normal reaction just isn't enough.

No question the boy has cried wolf too many times. Whether that is because of inaccurate reporting of their words by the media, or the experts recommending action repeatedly without compelling evidence, I'm not sure. But there have been warnings of likely pandemics coming for quite a while now -...

"Something like this" is the likeliest way that thinning will happen. But I doubt it will be this virus, except maybe indirectly if our poor reaction triggers a global economic depression. At this point, that seems almost certain to happen in this country; whether the ripple effects wreak havoc...

The way I see it is this: unless I'm wearing a commercial mask that seals well against my face (these are unobtainium right now), a lot of the air I breathe will not be coming through the mask. So if someone has coughed or sneezed (or even just blown) aerosolized droplets into my space, there's...

Dunno. If they're wearing a mask I'd say the odds are on your side if the proximity is of short duration. If you're wearing a mask it might help a little, but as Chip says the main purpose of a mask is to stop most of YOUR infected droplets from going into the air. Without the tools to make a...

Estimated delivery now is late May to early June...

Yes, there were pictures early on - before states started issuing stay-at-home orders - of big-box store customers (might have been Costco) loading their carts with a half dozen or more bales of TP.

That was pretty much the gist of a recent article in Science, as well.

Good news, Nate! As to the constipation: the one time I had a high-dose course of steroids, I had the same problem after about a week, close to the end of the course. It was BAD and I ended up in the ER, followed by a colonoscopy - and it was only relieved by the bowel prep. It was never...

Been mostly walking around the village and campus. Saturday it was cold enough for ice and I climbed the ski hill (900 ft vertical), but now it's above freezing again and muddy as heck so that's out. Mud season generally lasts through mid-April here. Might dry out earlier this year though, as...

My understanding is it's because people spend less time during warmer months indoors, in close contact. But because this virus is apparently more contagious than influenza or most rhinoviruses, and is thriving in places like Florida, that pattern may not hold in this case. Then again, there are...

Very sorry for your loss, Stan. I'm sure many of us will lose someone we know to this epidemic.

Here in Vermont it's still well above $2.00. Couple of nights ago I saw $2.18 in Montpelier. At the gas station in my town it's $2.29.