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Sure but there is a difference between a model that's based on actual data vs. one that's based purely on theory. I think that even actual data is the wrong input for models, seeing how inaccurate the actual data is. What we need is sampling data. But the only place I know where...

The Oxford study is not a study based on measured data - it's a hypothetical mathematical "what-if" model. It assumes things like a 0.1% hospitalization rate across the the entire population. This is off by at least 1 order of magnitude. Italy already reached the point where 1% of their...

If that is what he meant, his 1% figure is wrong. IFR is 1% of infected, not 1% of symptomatic. So either way requires clarification.

Define younger people? Under 19s? Where will they all live until they've acquired immunity?

It's really not. It's comparing e.g South Korea, who is provably NOT under-counting (a test-and-track strategy doesn't work if it's undercounted), to the US who is provably under-counting (the 3 states with the most cases only test hospital admissions).

Some very bad math. Never listen to someone who charts exponential growth on a linear chart. The difference between a US scenario that caps at 140k and one that caps at 140m would be in-perceivable on his chart.

Correct, I’m just responding to his hypothesis. In reality the curve can’t flatten while we have no nationwide lockdown and free and unencumbered travel between states where one is locked down, and the other one has no interest in locking down. I think we won’t hit a peak until we’ve seen 10s...

See my post here about the South Korea fallacy: https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/community/posts/2893590/ And in the case of the article above, here is the quote you can find in 15 seconds: "The situation in South Korea alone should dispel that narrative, where pervasive COVID-19 testing has...

This is a much more accurate distribution than the "40% of hospitalized". Especially can compare ICU admissions:

One more point. The NIH and CDC is now officially referring to SARS-CoV as SARS-CoV-1.

2021 school uniforms:

What's the end of that argument though? If the argument is, yeah, if we also peak at a 0.1% overall infection rate like Italy did, we can deal with it better than Italy, then sure. That implies we cap out at 360'000 infections, which we can handle better than Italy. But Italy had to institute...

Every article that makes that point contains the following fallacy - you can scan over them and find it in about 10 seconds: "The data from South Korea, where tracking the coronavirus has been by far the best to date, indicate that as much as 99% of active cases in the general population are...

The main problem we have is that people are only using one side of the toilet paper.

Keep in mind that the US is not really testing right now - a situation that will become worse as a few states have now given up the majority of their testing because of a lack of Personal Protection gear. So the only real correct stat we have is number of deaths, which is unfortunate because...

You're very lucky. I can't get anybody to read work communications - most commonly management. I've recently had to put a TLDR on my TLDR.

The following describes the process for the approximately 15% who are under 50 with no pre-existing conditions, who survive in the end, but still need to be on a ventilator for a few weeks...

They have lines going back 100 cars. They're probably going to make more money being closed than they did when they were open! Good for them.

It’s also very easy to create a vaccine that on the next round of infection causes a cytokine storm, and change a virus that has a 2% mortality rate into one that has a 20% mortality rate. In fact it’s more likely than not that a given vaccine will have that response, which is why only about 1...

It also leads to responses like this: “The Republican County Commission Chairman in Riley County, Kansas suggested during a Wednesday meeting that the COVID-19 pandemic was less of a concern for the Manhattan, Kansas area because there aren’t as many Chinese people there–unlike Italy, where...