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Technically the truth. Nobody who gets injected with disinfectant will die of COVID-19.

Yeah but whoever "buys" the contract has to take delivery. Or store it inside an oil tanker somewhere.

You will now be getting paid for taking oil : https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-oils-may-contract-skids-about-20-at-nadir-as-crudes-woes-continue-2020-04-19?mod=home-page

SR-20 and SR-22 is the same size? [EDIT] Oh, weight. Ok, then say SR-22 G5. (He didn't mention price).

If your friend doesn’t have mobility issues, a Cirrus is actually roomier than a 182 and can also carry that weight. Slightly harder to get in to though.

Confidence Interval. So for example if they reported a value of 10%, with a CI of 1.5%, any value from 8.5% to 11.5% would be equally likely. So with 1.5% positive rate @ 1.5% CI, anything from 0% to 3% is equally likely. The stated that in the study as well: "For example, if new estimates...

If it really turns out to be the case, and the secondary infection CFR is as high as the primary, we'd have to do a drive-to-zero - a vaccine won't actually help. Thankfully that's fairly unlikely.

Unfortunately it’s a really terrible study. The test they use has a 1.5% CI. And they detected a 1.5% positive rate... So it means precisely nothing. Unfortunately. You can use this results to justify both a CFR of 0% and one of 100%.

Where are you seeing that? Is this yesterday's WSJ number? (It seems wrong).

There are degrees of social distancing that isn't just stay-at-home lockdown. Many/most Asian countries follow lesser distancing. People there just follow certain basic societal rules and allow tracking. Unfortunately tracking is unimaginable here. People here would rather see millions of...

Since the graph was released 2 weeks ago COVID-19 deaths went from 9780 in New York to 16700 - those are still April. The datapoint at the end of the graph is just basically the deaths from March 4 to April 4. If you shift it forward by 2 weeks the last datapoint becomes March 17 to April 17...

Actually, starting viral load is directly reduced by physical distancing, even while remaining under the same curve. And seriousness and death rate is directly impacted by eventual viral load. A smaller initial infectious dose gives the body longer to mount an immune response before it is...

Here you go. Comparing deaths from all causes. It's 2 weeks old though - take that red line on the right and double it.

Only true when comparing 2 curves with identical end values.

I actually had to look up if there has ever been a vaccine for something OTHER than a virus. (There are).

Not sure where you're getting 60'000 from. March 2019 saw 253k deaths from all causes. But March is too early to compare - there were only 4000 US COVID-19 deaths by March 31st. 85% of US COVID deaths happened in April. Well, in the first 15 days of April.

It also doesn't account for people not wanting to risk going to the hospital and dying at home from heart disease etc. It's probably a wash between the two since accidents are not a very common cause of death, compared to everything else.

At least 60'000 just based on current infection count. That's assuming no more spread (an invalid assumption of course). Deaths trails infections by about 2 weeks. The gray area is the 28'000 we have today. The purple area is people already infected but hasn't resolved one way or the other yet.

Probably because of this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/health/chloroquine-coronavirus-trump.html