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Lost power here about an hour ago. Wind seems to be dying down; I think we're past the worst of it. A humongous live oak in the neighbors yard just fell. Root system was saturated from a foot of rain.

Winds are much lower than expected. We really dodged a bullet for the most part. Hate to see what Sarasota to Venice looks like. That will have to wait for daybreak. Prayers for people fighting for their lives as we speak.

Landfall at Sarasota/Siesta Key. Venice will take the worst of the surge. Good news is Tampa Bay actually has reverse surge. The wind is literally sucking water out of the bay. Millions of people will be spared. Great news for @tsts4! Bad news is the worst winds are on the north side...

Storm is losing steam. Seeing wind forecasts of 80mph in our area. That will be messy but survivable. Will make landfall between Sarasota and Venice. Mostly rural areas inland from there. We may have dodged a bullet.

Blue dot is my house. Gray dot is my plane. White diagonal line is forecast track. Probably 4-5 hours out.

Cat 3 now. Local stations saying it may drop to Cat 2 by landfall. OTOH path seems to be leaning north. If it does not turn east soon, landfall it may hit the mouth of Tampa Bay. That would drastically increase human impact.

Local newscasts are far more reliable. The meteorologists at major Tampa stations make or break their careers on hurricane coverage. Local coverage is very professional and detailed, and largely devoid of exaggeration or hyperbole. They understand that overstatement causes those who are in...

Some good news on the local newscasts; the cold front to the north is weakening the storm. The eye is breaking up, and they expect it to drop to Cat 3 by landfall.

This is a good example of how fast the track can deviate. Here is the 1000 cone, along with hourly plots through 1300. It is almost out of the cone in 3 hours! Now imagine the impact of that on the 12 hour track the next time they run the models.

Hard to say. Having ridden out at least dozen of these, the track can shift a surprising amount at the last minute. The 50 miles of coast to the south of the eye will get the surge. The area north of the eye will get minimal surge. Right now the track points to Sarasota, which would spare...

Might be shifting south. Will be interesting to see what the track is tomorrow morning.

Yes, exactly. Florida does this drill several times a year. Virtually every public school in coastal counties is set up as a shelter. They are safe, staffed, well supplied, and accommodate pets.

People want to discuss what happened when it is fresh on their minds, not wait a year for a report. It's human nature. 90% of the time, the circumstances of flight readily point to a set of possible causes. It is not baseless speculation to identify known facts and discuss potential...

Smart move. A worst case direct hit could put 10-15 feet of water on Apollo Beach. And that would be high energy waves and surges, not a slow steady rise. Not survivable. Sorry this happened to you. I have two good friends in Apollo Beach who had the same thing happen. I know it's tough.

Common misconception. Water is the killer. If you are in a declared evacuation zone, get the hell out of there. Everyone else should generally stay put unless you have personal needs that might cause challenges.

Bookmarking for next July.

Weather is already marginal VFR and getting worse. Lakeland is reporting bkn 011 ovc 021. Anything VFR-only is stuck.

No, is expected to weaken before landfall.

Lakeland is far enough inland that she should be safe. Most houses are reinforced concrete block and can easily withstand a direct hit as long as no water issues. The challenge is the aftermath. Lost power, blocked streets, etc. Is she alone or does she have someone to care for her?

Also, I'm pretty sure I will lose my plane if we get a direct hit.