Magnetic North Pole Gone Walkabout?

DJTorrente

DJTorrente

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DJTorrente
The Magnetic North Pole Has Officially Changed Position

I know we all use the GNSS magenta line all but exclusively these days, so is this anything pilots should be concerned about more than the average person? If paper charts were anything more than a novelty I might compare the current ones to old ones I still have kicking around to see the declination lines. I do know if it gets bad enough runways can be renumbered.

I expect that our tools and techniques for measuring the precise location of the magnetic north pole have improved quite a bit over the years. However, I can't help but notice that the rate of change seems to be accelerating.
 
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Earth experiences frequent (geologically) geomagnetic reversals. The most active time period seems to be a 12 million year period centered around a period about 15 million years ago. In that 12 million years, Earth experienced 51 reversals. It is believed the last reversal occurred 780,000 years ago.

Geomagnetic reversal - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

We're due. Sleep well!
 
A new World Magnetic Module from which the declination lines are created is issued by NOAA ever 5 years. In 2019 the pole shifted enough that they issued an out of cycle WMM. The new WMM was just issued last month at normal cycle.

The WMM is used by all sorts of nav equipment in several types of platforms. The platform I am most familiar with is INS sensors in which the new WMM must be updated.

Geomagnetism | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

Geomagnetism is one of the oldest geophysical sciences. Geomagnetic fields have been observed and used since ancient times, and are still used for modern applications in navigation and mineral exploration. NCEI develops and distributes models of the geomagnetic field and maintains archives of...
www.ncei.noaa.gov www.ncei.noaa.gov
 
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Domenick said:
Earth experiences frequent (geologically) geomagnetic reversals. The most active time period seems to be a 12 million year period centered around a period about 15 million years ago. In that 12 million years, Earth experienced 51 reversals. It is believed the last reversal occurred 780,000 years ago.

Geomagnetic reversal - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

We're due. Sleep well!
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It's gonna turn up near Santorini...
 
Domenick said:
Earth experiences frequent (geologically) geomagnetic reversals. The most active time period seems to be a 12 million year period centered around a period about 15 million years ago. In that 12 million years, Earth experienced 51 reversals. It is believed the last reversal occurred 780,000 years ago.

Geomagnetic reversal - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

We're due. Sleep well!
Click to expand...

I've heard numerous scientists saying we are overdue for a reversal, and the signs are all there. I've also seen a lot of hype that this could be catastrophic for humanity, although I'll admit I'm not smart enough to understand all of the whys. Part of me wonders if it will be like the Y2K bug we were terrified would shut the world down, and at the end of the day I think some Blockbuster customers got hit with crazy late fees.

Let's see who is here that isn't old enough to get the Y2K or Blockbuster references...
 
Well, when reversals do happen, it takes a while...

The duration of a full reversal varies between 2,000 and 12,000 years.<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal#cite_note-glatzmaier2015-3"><span>[</span>3<span>]</span></a>​

Even as slow as my Musketeer is, I don't think a change that occurs at a max rate of 180 degrees per 2000 years (0.09 deg/yr) is going to have much effect on my navigation during any given trip.
 
Half Fast said:
Well, when they do happen, it takes a while...

The duration of a full reversal varies between 2,000 and 12,000 years.<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal#cite_note-glatzmaier2015-3"><span>[</span>3<span>]</span></a>​

Even as slow as my Musketeer is, I don't think a change that occurs at a max rate of 180 degrees per 2000 years (0.09 deg/yr) is going to have much effect on my navigation during any given trip.
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i dunno…it’s probably cause you to make a downwind turn…
 
Note, however, that VORs are not recalibrated very often for magnetic drift. So the "zero degree" radial may be quite far off from the current local zero degree bearing. Doesn't really matter for approaches since you'll still follow the published radial to the runway even if its "wrong" in absolute terms.
 
AlleyCat67 said:
Note, however, that VORs are not recalibrated very often for magnetic drift. So the "zero degree" radial may be quite far off from the current local zero degree bearing. Doesn't really matter for approaches since you'll still follow the published radial to the runway even if its "wrong" in absolute terms.
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People still use VOR’s?
 
They've been remarking runways with new heading numbers on a regular basis for years. Plenty of guidance on that which is based on several international magnetic standards. And the rate increase of the magnetic shift is one of the reasons for the reduction in certified compass roses around the country due to the costs of remarking and recalibrating the rose on a more regular schedule.
 
DJTorrente said:
The Magnetic North Pole Has Officially Changed Position

I know we all use the GNSS magenta line all but exclusively these days, so is this anything pilots should be concerned about more than the average person? If paper charts were anything more than a novelty I might compare the current ones to old ones I still have kicking around to see the declination lines. I do know if it gets bad enough runways can be renumbered.

I expect that our tools and techniques for measuring the precise location of the magnetic north pole have improved quite a bit over the years. However, I can't help but notice that the rate of change seems to be accelerating.
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I think we need to care during a ir check ride because they will check the compass card calibration date (or something, I haven’t finished yet)
 
FastEddieB said:
I was just thinking the same thing!

The compass just has to point to wherever the magnetic North Pole happens to be at any given time.

Right?
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If my understanding of magnetism and compasses is correct, yes.
 
Randomskylane said:
I think we need to care during a ir check ride because they will check the compass card calibration date (or something, I haven’t finished yet)
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And then what? Unless it’s in the ACS, it’s just chat and a “this doesn’t count toward the checkride but here’s something interesting” moment.
 
ateamer said:
What I meant was that the DPE isn’t going to challenge the candidate on the date of the compass deviation card vs when the North Pole’s location moved.
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Randomskylane said:
I think we need to care during a ir check ride because they will check the compass card calibration date (or something, I haven’t finished yet)
Click to expand...


Are you guys perhaps confusing deviation with variation? Deviation (caused by metals and fields in the aircraft) won't change when the magnetic pole moves, but variation will. The compass card gives deviation, not variation.
 
ateamer said:
What I meant was that the DPE isn’t going to challenge the candidate on the date of the compass deviation card vs when the North Pole’s location moved.
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No, he's not. But maybe not for the reason you think.
 
Randomskylane said:
I think we need to care during a ir check ride because they will check the compass card calibration date (or something, I haven’t finished yet)
Click to expand...
Since the Magenta line craze has went full swing I have noticed a significant uptick in compass correction cards, even ones that were supposable recently calibrated, that are mostly fiction, sometimes with 30 degrees of error or more.
Mechanics/installs seem to rarely actually calibrate them with the engine running.
I have done my own amateur calibration using a known runway heading and a Good Direction gyro to create calibrate a compass and create a more realistic correction card. Showed to the mechanic and he signed and dated it.


Brian
 
Half Fast said:
Are you guys perhaps confusing deviation with variation? Deviation (caused by metals and fields in the aircraft) won't change when the magnetic pole moves, but variation will. The compass card gives deviation, not variation.
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This. Remember that the deviants are in the plane.
 
midwestpa24 said:
Part of me wonders if it will be like the Y2K bug we were terrified would shut the world down, and at the end of the day I think some Blockbuster customers got hit with crazy late fees.

Let's see who is here that isn't old enough to get the Y2K or Blockbuster references...
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The Y2K bug did not shut the world down because software companies were aware of the issue and took the necessary steps to deal with the problem. For example, my employer, who made wafer inspection equipment for the semiconductor industry, was required by our customers to ensure in a timely manner that our products were Y2K compliant.

It sounds like the time frame for anticipating and dealing with consequences of the next geomagnetic field reversal is likely to be far longer than was the case for the Y2K bug, so hopefully any solutions that may be needed will be found in a timely manner (if some extinction event doesn't intervene before then).
 
midwestpa24 said:
I've heard numerous scientists saying we are overdue for a reversal, and the signs are all there. I've also seen a lot of hype that this could be catastrophic for humanity, although I'll admit I'm not smart enough to understand all of the whys. Part of me wonders if it will be like the Y2K bug we were terrified would shut the world down, and at the end of the day I think some Blockbuster customers got hit with crazy late fees.

Let's see who is here that isn't old enough to get the Y2K or Blockbuster references...
Click to expand...
ateamer said:
Almost everything is going to be catastrophic, and then when it happens 99% of us wouldn’t even know, and a few months later it’s just a Jeopardy answer.
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The reason the Y2K thing was a nothing burger wasn't that it wasn't a MASSIVE problem.

The reason the Y2K thing *turned into* a nothing burger is because millions, maybe even billions, of man-hours were put into fixing it. And even then, I decided to go visit a friend who lived in a warm place, just in case someone at the power company screwed up.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
The reason the Y2K thing was a nothing burger wasn't that it wasn't a MASSIVE problem.

The reason the Y2K thing *turned into* a nothing burger is because millions, maybe even billions, of man-hours were put into fixing it. And even then, I decided to go visit a friend who lived in a warm place, just in case someone at the power company screwed up.
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Curious how big an effort will be required for Y2K2038. Lot fewer systems will be using int32 by then but I imagine they’ll be some old stuff that still runs critical systems using it.
 
AKiss20 said:
Curious how big an effort will be required for Y2K2038. Lot fewer systems will be using int32 by then but I imagine they’ll be some old stuff that still runs critical systems using it.
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Well, I think when we were working on the Y2K problem, people started thinking more about how we store dates in all systems so the 2038 problem has been on the radar since then and things have slowly been getting fixed. I don't think it'll be nearly as big a deal because of that. If there are still systems in place that are 30+ years old then, there may be some anomalies but I doubt it'll amount to much this time. Y2K was the canary in the coal mine for 2038.
 
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