I’m calling the peak

right after summer vacation season, kids back in school, winter weather grounds half the country 3 months later.

that said, this is not what this is about. This is the economy finally telling the heroin addicts, last call. The organic sales are coming. Sellers are clowns, but liquidity is going to be real wake up call for all these financed millionaires. As I listed on another thread, insulted retorts to my cash offers are no longer the case, I now get counter offers and email replies to follow up. Anecdotal, but I've seen willingness to negotiate down 15% from listed price already. Airplane was junk for the money and still overpriced which is why I passed, but just making the point that seller would have ghosted me or insulted me two years ago. Lots of "last buyer financing fell throuh", "life forces sale" now. Yeah, that's called it's not worth what you say it is, it's worth what the guy with cash on hand says it is.

If I was interested in TW ownership (I'm not), I'd already be back in the game at the same capex as the arrow in 2013 (inflation adjusted), fact. Things are softening, which is good I want my stolen labor value back.

Just got a new car instead (stick shift, rare find in the economy sedan market) for 2K below MSRP, dealer was a ghost town. Of course it would, I'm a cash buyer and the banks are running for the hills, so all the edgars down here in SAT financing overpriced cars for 60K on 50K/yr on 8% are finally getting sidelined. At any rate, they let that car go to me for almost 50% less than those "name brand" clownshoe shops were asking to overhaul that thrice re-used 1890s steam engine on the Arrow last year, before R/R mind you. Value. Yeah, I'm having a blast driving my sticky shifty new car around while I pick my teeth until they get real on the value proposition.

Glad to hear Viking came out with a 175hp offering for mid 20s. Wishing them and the rest of the auto conversion favorable luck in finding some traction on the homebuilt side, we need powerplant pricing competition on the 160-200 sustained hp market, it's killing the hobby.
 
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hindsight2020 said:
… but liquidity is going to be real wake up call...
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We just had a <1yr partner sell his share for liquidity purposes. I’m waiting for the docs, but I suspect his share sold below his purchase price, a first in 8 years.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
Decent uptick in the number of aircraft for sale (and even more just within the last week since I ran this).
Maybe a seasonal artifact. The trend continues that things are taking a while to sell.
Not much change in aggregate pricing

Archer/Malibu pricing stats might be a little misleading. Notes at bottom.
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What is your prediction over the next 6-9 months?
 
bruno82 said:
What is your prediction over the next 6-9 months?
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My macro views are almost in total lockstep with Hindsight's.

We're in a precarious financial position and I think it's going to be plainly obvious when the inevitable post mortems are written after our next economic bust cycle. But for now the music is still playing, so keep partying.

Personally, I think it's a fools errand to call time on the exact moment the bubble bursts (though it's fun to do that :)). It's one of those things that may be easy to see coming down the road, but has timing that's only clear in hindsight.

The main thing I will watch is inventory numbers for aircraft and see if they continue to stack up. If they do: I know what comes next. People may be OK waiting 2-3 months without closing an aircraft sale, but when they start getting into the 5-6+ month territory (as is happening more frequently now) I think the panic starts to set in. Aircraft owners are usually in the upper-crust of financial resources so that'll slow down any fire-sales (for the most part), but I do see fear becoming the norm in the market instead of greed.

As an aside, I thought this was a fun line from the VREF newsletter out today with their quarterly update on prices/mkt activity: "There seems to be no cap to the ceiling in price escalations for parts, especially those of older aircraft. Its taking a substantial impact on values and several aircraft will be taken out of service due to these issues."

That should help put a natural cap on a/c prices lol.

disclaimer: my speculation is worth what you paid for it ;)
 
My prediction is - I can't predict, and I've not run into a source that seems to be able to.

So if you want to own a plane, bite the current bullet and buy. If you want to buy a plane to make money on, buy a lottery ticket instead.
 
My analysis of the market is that it's too risky for a new entrant - so partner up with someone who has been hurt before and goad them into buying half of a twin that needs a lot of work to become turnkey... sorry @ArrowFlyer86 :)
 
WDD said:
My prediction is - I can't predict, and I've not run into a source that seems to be able to.

So if you want to own a plane, bite the current bullet and buy. If you want to buy a plane to make money on, buy a lottery ticket instead.
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I'm currently in training for my ppl. I'm happy to get my license and rent for a year. I want a C172. I have loosely followed over the last several months and there seems to be a lot more on the market and plenty that have slashed their prices. I feel like the concert is slowing coming to an end. I guess I'm willing to spend the same or possibly slightly more in a year than watching price drop 20-30% in 6months to a year.
 
copium; prices do fluctuate down.

There's no need to be a simp for sellers, and I've been on both sides of the transaction. If you can't wait because [reasons], by all means. But this idea of gee chucks it is what it is, is hardly a reason to exercise price-inelasticity of demand. It's not insignificant either, waiting 24 months will save me almost 40% from the peak, which I already called Fall 2023 (inflation-adjusted) for all the reasons and concurring opinions I've cited ad nauseam already. And since I'm not a financed millionaire, capex is in fact not the cHeApeSt pArt oF oWnersHip for me.
 
I've been watching restart and newer 206's. Definitely more inventory on the market and it does not appear that many are moving quickly. Double edged sword as I would be trading in a restart overpriced 182-S (purchased post covid).
 
bruno82 said:
I guess I'm willing to spend the same or possibly slightly more in a year than watching price drop 20-30% in 6months to a year.
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I get it. There's no guarantee the price drops in a year anywho, so you're taking a gamble either way.

There's also a non-financial cost to deferring ownership, mainly delayed trips/memory building (esp if you have family or are older). Sometimes that takes precedence over the financial aspect.
As long as you don't spend money you don't have then "overpaying" (relative to prices 12-18 months later) might not be a big deal.

For others, overpaying when they're already financing it and over-extended would potentially be a huge problem. Gotta feel out your own financial situation.
 
I'm in the market - low time student pilot looking for a Piper. Might be wishful thinking but hoping prices have peaked....
 
CraigSA said:
I'm in the market - low time student pilot looking for a Piper. Might be wishful thinking but hoping prices have peaked....
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As an exampme, about a year ago we were making fun of 2-3 Cardinals that were listed for around $200k (very high $100s to $250). Now it seems more like a norm, and nowhere nearly as well equipped (avionics) as those.
I hate quoting Aerosmith, but..."dream on".
 
CraigSA said:
I'm in the market - low time student pilot looking for a Piper. Might be wishful thinking but hoping prices have peaked....
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I don’t see prices dropping a significant amount, just flattening out, unless there’s a big economic downturn. 2000 was the peak and even in 2008 (Great Recession) they had only dropped 5-10% from previous year, maybe 20-25% from their peak.
 
Finally have a 1y lap of data as of the beginning of last month, which allows me to do YoY comparisons.
I'll throw together another report after the fly-in this weekend for anyone interested.

But here's a fun fact...
In the aircraft makes/models I track (certified, major mfrs), there are +30% more listings this year compared to the same time last year. That's a sizeable increase.
What really caught my attention though was the recent pace of inventory growth. I'd seen the monthly growths in the mid single digits and sort of shrugged it off, but cumulatively they've added up especially compared to last yr.
For comparison, the month-over-month increase in listings this time last year was +0.2% (aug to sept). This year over the same frame, it's +8.2% +8.6%.
And now that I look back, the monthly value of listing increases have been accelerating since about June. So that's at least an interesting feature to keep an eye on.

(EDIT: After finalizing data report today (9/25), I've corrected the comparable period growth rate to +8.6%, previously noted as +8.2%).
 
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ArrowFlyer86 said:
Finally have a 1y lap of data as of the beginning of last month, which allows me to do YoY comparisons.
I'll throw together another report after the fly-in this weekend for anyone interested.

But here's a fun fact...
In the aircraft makes/models I track (certified, major mfrs), there are +30% more listings this year compared to the same time last year. That's a sizeable increase.
What really caught my attention though was the recent pace of inventory growth. I'd seen the monthly growths in the mid single digits and sort of shrugged it off, but cumulatively they've added up especially compared to last yr.
For comparison, the month-over-month increase in listings this time last year was +0.2% (aug to sept). This year over the same frame, it's +8.2%.
And now that I look back, the monthly value of listing increases have been accelerating since about June. So that's at least an interesting feature to keep an eye on.
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The snowball begins
 
Notes:
- Big uptick in month-over-month increases of listed aircraft: +8.6%.
- Overall, aggregate "listing turnover %" (aka: suspected sales) is at the lowest point I've seen yet (30%)
- Pretty hefty asking price increases on both mean/median basis.
- A lot of Cirrus SR22 aircraft listed and their turnover remains quite low. The math implies only 1 of 5 listed SR22s sells per month at this level, it's been at that level for a while now.
- PA28 sales slowed to a crawl (~28%) relative to their normal selling pace (normally 40-50%); I think that's the lowest turnover I've seen yet
- Listing age had a drop, with the influx of new listings (429) having a big influence on that
- Will start generating YoY stats next report

Latest:
1727284086432.png
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
Notes:
- PA28 sales slowed to a crawl (~28%) relative to their normal selling pace (normally 40-50%); I think that's the lowest turnover I've seen yet
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that wouldn't be the new proposed spar AD could it? That only came out recently. And affects more than just the -28.
Just wondering.
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
that wouldn't be the new proposed spar AD could it? That only came out recently. And affects more than just the -28.
Just wondering.
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It's possible, but my guess is that it's not super likely. How many people knew that was coming down the pipe? I for one, did not - and I'm a PA28R owner!
Plus I think given the decline in turnover across the board points to a broader slowdown overall across many series. It wasn't isolated to -28s.
 
charheep said:
The days of a sub-100k plane are almost over. Average 172 prices are $128k!
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Engine overhauls are $30k or more.
Glass panels are more common and will soon become the norm.
Paint jobs are $20k or more.

You can easily justify why a well maintained, upgraded 4 place airplane is well over $100k.
 
rene86mx said:
Would be interested if we could get the actual sale price for the ones sold.... I bet many are being sold below asking and sellers are just increasing prices
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$1 + OVC
 
“For comparison, the month-over-month increase in listings this time last year was +0.2% (aug to sept). This year over the same frame, it's +8.2% +8.6%.”

We shall see if supply and demand really holds. I suspect the increase is due to a lot of older pilots on complex aircraft aging out on insurance costs. I’ve thought about a bonanza for a long time, but at 67, I think I’ll keep my Tiger.
 
Rcmutz said:
“For comparison, the month-over-month increase in listings this time last year was +0.2% (aug to sept). This year over the same frame, it's +8.2% +8.6%.”

We shall see if supply and demand really holds. I suspect the increase is due to a lot of older pilots on complex aircraft aging out on insurance costs. I’ve thought about a bonanza for a long time, but at 67, I think I’ll keep my Tiger.
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The data I have seems to suggest a broad based increase in inventory, it doesn't appear to limited only to retracts. Though that's an interesting demographic trend I'm going to make note to check on as we get more data.

What I've been seeing, but need more time to watch it play out, is just a slow down in turnover, most noticeable at the high end of the market. (In the series tracked, I count "high-end" as Bo A36s, Cessna 206s, SR22s and Malibus)
This year their sales pace seems to have weakened. A36s for instance: beautiful planes, but pricey. They're selling at a crawl recently: only ~1 in 10 listed A36s sells per month. For SR22s, it's ~20% turnover, so 1 in 5 listed SR22s sells per month. Malibus are the worst, occasionally we see 0% turnover in that category. Seems like those, while nice planes, are harder to unload to a new buyer.
It doesn't take much of an increase in listings to upset that delicate supply/demand balance and see an inventory buildup.

rene86mx said:
Would be interested if we could get the actual sale price for the ones sold.... I bet many are being sold below asking and sellers are just increasing prices
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Wish this were possible. Alas, I don't know of a way to do it. The bank lenders probably have the best data on this but don't share it to the best of my knowledge. Insurance companies probably have the second best.

EDIT: VREF claims to have actual sales prices but they stopped sharing that data with AOPA members. Plus, just by looking at their series it seemed obvious they were doing some kind of smoothing to the data, which makes it harder to actually spot trends in a timely fashion.
 
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If pilots were getting out of aviation, I'd expect avgas consumption to decrease, but looking at USEIA's product supplied figures, consumption is up by 10 percent year over year.

Clarification, that's the first six months of 2024 compared to the first six months of 2023.
 
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FormerHangie said:
If pilots were getting out of aviation, I'd expect avgas consumption to decrease, but looking at USEIA's product supplied figures, consumption is up by 10 percent year over year.
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Can you send a link to that series? I meant to bookmark it when I saw it before. I've looked for it a few times but I couldn't find any current data.
 
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